Top-down solar modulation of climate: evidence for centennial-scale change
Top-down solar modulation of climate: evidence for centennial-scale change
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034008
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发表时间：
2010-08
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Mike Lockwood;C. Bell;T. Woollings;R. Harrison;Lesley J. Gray;J. D. Haigh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mike Lockwood;C. Bell;T. Woollings;R. Harrison;Lesley J. Gray;J. D. Haigh
在进入最近的“异常”低太阳极小期期间，观测显示太阳紫外线排放的变化比以前太阳周期的同一阶段更大。在负责平流层臭氧生成和加热的波长处尤其如此。这意味着“自上而下”的太阳调制可能是对流层长期变化的一个更大的因素，而不是以前认为的，许多气候模型只允许“自下而上”的影响，变化较小的可见光和红外太阳辐射。我们提出了太阳紫外线辐照度长期漂移的证据，这是没有发现在其常用的代理。此外，我们发现，平流层和对流层的风和温度都显示出较强的区域变化，这些太阳指数确实显示出长期趋势。自上而下的气候效应显示出长期漂移（也可能与自下而上的太阳强迫异相），这将改变空间响应模式，并意味着在平流层具有足够分辨率的气候化学模型对于作出准确的区域/季节气候预测将变得非常重要。我们的研究结果还提供了一个潜在的解释，持续的古气候结果显示太阳对区域或当地的气候指标的影响。
During the descent into the recent ‘exceptionally’ low solar minimum, observations have revealed a larger change in solar UV emissions than seen at the same phase of previous solar cycles. This is particularly true at wavelengths responsible for stratospheric ozone production and heating. This implies that ‘top-down’ solar modulation could be a larger factor in long-term tropospheric change than previously believed, many climate models allowing only for the ‘bottom-up’ effect of the less-variable visible and infrared solar emissions. We present evidence for long-term drift in solar UV irradiance, which is not found in its commonly used proxies. In addition, we find that both stratospheric and tropospheric winds and temperatures show stronger regional variations with those solar indices that do show long-term trends. A top-down climate effect that shows long-term drift (and may also be out of phase with the bottom-up solar forcing) would change the spatial response patterns and would mean that climate-chemistry models that have sufficient resolution in the stratosphere would become very important for making accurate regional/seasonal climate predictions. Our results also provide a potential explanation of persistent palaeoclimate results showing solar influence on regional or local climate indicators.