University of Birmingham Impact of Bayesian Priors on the Characterization of Binary Black Hole Coalescences
University of Birmingham Impact of Bayesian Priors on the Characterization of Binary Black Hole Coalescences
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发表时间：
2018
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通讯作者：
S. Vitale;D. Gerosa;C. Haster;K. Chatziioannou;A. Zimmerman
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作者：
S. Vitale;D. Gerosa;C. Haster;K. Chatziioannou;A. Zimmerman
在数据仅提供少量信息的情况下，先验选择可以在贝叶斯统计推断中发挥重要作用，可能会影响推断的物理学。我们证明，从当前双黑洞聚结的引力波测量推断出的一些参数确实是这种情况。我们使用替代（和天体物理学驱动的）先验假设重新分析了双 LIGO 干涉仪执行的首次探测。我们发现不同的先验分布可能会在结果后验中引入偏差，从而影响这些系统的物理解释。例如，（i）如果考虑黑洞自旋主要与双星的角动量对齐的先验而不是各向同性自旋方向的标准选择，则对有效黑洞自旋 χ eff 的 90% 可信区间的限制会受到约 10% 的变化，并且（ii）在由初始恒星质量函数驱动的先验下，我们推断出对黑洞质量更严格的约束，特别是，我们发现没有任何推断的支持假定质量间隙 M (cid:46) 5 M (cid:12) 内的质量。
In a regime where data are only mildly informative, prior choices can play a significant role in Bayesian statistical inference, potentially affecting the inferred physics. We show this is indeed the case for some of the parameters inferred from current gravitational-wave measurements of binary black hole coalescences. We reanalyze the first detections performed by the twin LIGO interferom-eters using alternative (and astrophysically motivated) prior assumptions. We find different prior distributions can introduce deviations in the resulting posteriors that impact the physical interpretation of these systems. For instance, (i) limits on the 90% credible interval on the effective black hole spin χ eff are subject to variations of ∼ 10% if a prior with black hole spins mostly aligned to the binary’s angular momentum is considered instead of the standard choice of isotropic spin directions, and (ii) under priors motivated by the initial stellar mass function, we infer tighter constraints on the black hole masses, and in particular, we find no support for any of the inferred masses within the putative mass gap M (cid:46) 5 M (cid:12) .