Sea temperature is the primary driver of recent and predicted fish community structure across Northeast Atlantic shelf seas.
Sea temperature is the primary driver of recent and predicted fish community structure across Northeast Atlantic shelf seas.
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海水温度是东北大西洋陆架海域近期和预测鱼类群落结构的主要驱动因素。
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.16633
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Rutterford LA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rutterford LA
气候变化强烈影响了海洋鱼类的分布和丰富度，引发了人们对未来气候对商业捕捞种群影响的担忧。了解当今海洋组合大规模空间变化的关键驱动因素可以预测未来的变化。在这里，我们对 2005 年至 2018 年间通过 23 次调查和 31,502 个采样事件收集的东北大西洋 198 种海洋鱼类的标准化丰度数据进行了独特的分析。我们对空间综合标准化数据的分析表明，温度是整个地区鱼类群落结构的关键驱动因素，其次是盐度和深度。我们利用这些关键环境变量来模拟气候变化在多种排放情景下将如何影响 2050 年和 2100 年单个物种的分布和当地群落结构。我们的结果一致表明，预计的气候变化将导致整个地区物种群落的变化。总体而言，预计气候变暖幅度较大的地区社区层面的变化最大，而高纬度地区的影响最为明显。基于这些结果，我们认为未来气候驱动的变暖将导致该地区商业渔业机会的广泛变化。
Climate change has strongly influenced the distribution and abundance of marine fish species, leading to concern about effects of future climate on commercially harvested stocks. Understanding the key drivers of large‐scale spatial variation across present‐day marine assemblages enables predictions of future change. Here we present a unique analysis of standardised abundance data for 198 marine fish species from across the Northeast Atlantic collected by 23 surveys and 31,502 sampling events between 2005 and 2018. Our analyses of the spatially comprehensive standardised data identified temperature as the key driver of fish community structure across the region, followed by salinity and depth. We employed these key environmental variables to model how climate change will affect both the distributions of individual species and local community structure for the years 2050 and 2100 under multiple emissions scenarios. Our results consistently indicate that projected climate change will lead to shifts in species communities across the entire region. Overall, the greatest community‐level changes are predicted at locations with greater warming, with the most pronounced effects at higher latitudes. Based on these results, we suggest that future climate‐driven warming will lead to widespread changes in opportunities for commercial fisheries across the region.