Daily surveillance of COVID-19 using the prospective space-time scan statistic in the United States
Daily surveillance of COVID-19 using the prospective space-time scan statistic in the United States
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DOI：
10.1016/j.sste.2020.100354
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Lan, Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hohl, Alexander;Delmelle, Eric M.;Lan, Yu
严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）于2019年底在中国武汉市首次发现。该病毒可能在有症状的个体中引起2019新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）。自2019年12月以来，全球已有超过7，000，000例确诊病例和超过400，000例确诊死亡。在美国，目前已有超过二百万宗确诊个案，超过十一万人死亡。自2020年1月报告首例病例以来，美国的COVID-19病例数据每天在县一级更新。目前还没有一项研究展示了使用时空聚类检测技术进行COVID-19日常监测的新奇。在本文中，我们利用前瞻性泊松时空扫描统计量来检测美国48个州和华盛顿特区县级的每日COVID-19集群。随着大流行的发展，我们通常会发现相对风险非常稳定的较小集群的增加。对重要时空集群的日常跟踪可以通过评估和可视化被确定为COVID-19热点的规模、相对风险和位置来促进决策和公共卫生资源分配。(C)2020年，任作家。出版社：Elsevier Ltd
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first discovered in late 2019 in Wuhan City, China. The virus may cause novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in symptomatic individuals. Since December of 2019, there have been over 7,000,000 confirmed cases and over 400,000 confirmed deaths worldwide. In the United States (U.S.), there have been over 2,000,000 confirmed cases and over 110,000 confirmed deaths. COVID-19 case data in the United States has been updated daily at the county level since the first case was reported in January of 2020. There currently lacks a study that showcases the novelty of daily COVID-19 surveillance using space-time cluster detection techniques. In this paper, we utilize a prospective Poisson space-time scan statistic to detect daily clusters of COVID-19 at the county level in the contiguous 48 U.S. and Washington D.C. As the pandemic progresses, we generally find an increase of smaller clusters of remarkably steady relative risk. Daily tracking of significant space-time clusters can facilitate decision-making and public health resource allocation by evaluating and visualizing the size, relative risk, and locations that are identified as COVID-19 hotspots. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.