Production and Technology of Iron and Steel in Japan during 2018
Production and Technology of Iron and Steel in Japan during 2018
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2018年日本钢铁生产及技术
DOI：
10.2355/isijinternational.59.939
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
K. Halada
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Halada
回顾2018年与全球经济相关的重大事件，美国3月份根据《贸易扩张法》第232条对钢铝实施进口限制，导致美国与中国之间的贸易摩擦进一步恶化。11月，欧盟正式决定了《退出协议》的条款，该协议确立了英国退出欧盟的条件，我们不得不将重点放在所谓的保护主义趋势上，例如英国议会今年年初否决了这一提议。尽管对这种贸易摩擦及其相关因素的影响的担忧引发了欧洲和中国的经济停滞情绪，但全球经济的整体基调是坚定的。在日本，2018年是自然灾害频发的一年，包括7月份日本西部创纪录的暴雨，9月份横跨四国和近海地区的第21号台风(台风Jebi)，以及同月发生的北海道东伊布里地震，震中位于北海道伊布里地区，地震烈度为7度，是日本地震烈度等级中最高的。这些自然灾害伴随着极其严重的破坏，也影响了附近钢厂的运营。受这些自然灾害的影响，日本的工业生产指数在第三季度停滞不前，但随着灾难的恢复，第四季度恢复到了今年的最高水平。此外，日本的就业条件稳步改善，完全失业率和职位空缺与申请者的比率继续显示出改善的趋势。日本经济继续保持温和复苏的趋势，2018财年的实际GDP增长率预计为0.9%左右。虽然与日本1965-1970年的茨城热潮(实际国内生产总值增长率11.5%)和1980年代末的泡沫经济(5.4%)相比，这是一个温和的增长率，但人们认为这将是战后最长的经济恢复期1-4)在世界钢铁行业，中国和印度的运动是2018年的一个鲜明特征。尽管产能过剩是中国几年来一直面临的问题，但G20国家于2016年成立了钢铁过剩产能全球论坛(GFSEC)来处理这一问题。GFSEC第一次部长级会议于2017年11月举行，第二次部长级会议于2018年9月举行，通过这些会议努力消除所有国家的钢铁过剩产能。在中国，政府正在推进一项削减粗钢产能的计划，作为这些努力的一部分，以劣质感应炉钢为代表的非法经营将被彻底消除。另一方面，尽管2018年下半年，受美中国贸易摩擦影响，汽车等钢铁消费行业停滞感蔓延，但在此之前，中国的内需一直表现出坚定的基调，因此，2018年中国的粗钢产量达到了9.2826亿吨的历史新高。2015年和2016年，粗钢产量基本持平，约为8亿吨，但由于调整过剩产能和扩大内需，产量再次增长，并实现了超过9亿吨的水平。在包括政府支出和固定资本形成总额在内的公共部门的支持下，印度继续保持每年超过7%的实际GDP高增长率，由于钢铁需求也有所增加，2018年粗钢产量上升至1.0646亿吨，居世界第二位，首次超过日本的粗钢产量(2018年为1.0433亿吨)。反映这些趋势的是，2018年世界粗钢产量达到180861万吨，首次超过18亿吨(表1)。5)接下来，谈到日本钢铁行业的趋势，尽管由于年中前后发生的自然灾害的影响，日本经济整体经历了暂时的停滞，但现在已经形成了逐步复苏和从灾难中复苏的基本基调。在钢铁消费行业，虽然在建筑市场的建筑建筑领域和制造业的造船领域未能看到适当的恢复，但在其他领域的趋势总体上是坚定的。与两年前相比，2020年东京奥运会和残奥会前对城市发展的需求呈上升趋势，并在2018年达到顶峰。另一方面，特别是在综合钢铁制造商中，生产设备问题随处可见，这也影响了粗钢生产。反映这些情况，日本2018年(日历)粗钢产量为1.0433亿吨，与前一年的1.0466亿吨(图1)基本持平(下降0.3%)。
Reviewing the significant events related to global economy in 2018, the United States imposed import restrictions in March on steel and aluminum under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, resulting in a further worsening trade friction between the US and China. In November, the European Union formally decided the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement establishing the conditions for Great Britain’s withdrawal from the EU (“Brexit”), and we had to focus on so-called protectionist trends, such as the rejection of that proposal by the British Parliament at the beginning of this year. Although fears for the effects of this kind of trade friction and related factors gave rise to feelings of economic stagnation in Europe and China, the overall tone of the global economy was firm. In Japan, 2018 was year of repeated natural disasters, including record-breaking heavy rains in western Japan in July and the large typhoon No. 21 (Typhoon Jebi) that crossed Shikoku and the Kinki region in September, and was followed in the same month by the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake, which had its epicenter in the Iburi region of Hokkaido and registered a seismic intensity of 7, the highest on Japan’s seismic intensity scale. These natural disasters were accompanied by extremely severe damage and also affected the operation of nearby steel works. Influenced by these natural disasters, Japan’s industrial production index was stagnant in the 3rd quarter, but then recovered to the year’s highest level in the 4th quarter as recovery from the disasters progressed. Moreover, employment conditions in Japan improved steadily, with both the complete unemployment rate and the ratio of job openings to applicants continuing to show improving trends. A moderate recovering trend continued in the Japanese economy, and a real GDP growth rate of around 0.9% was forecast for fiscal year 2018. Although this is a moderate growth rate in comparison with the Japan’s Izanagi Boom of 1965–1970 (real GDP growth rate 11.5%) and the bubble economy of the late 1980s (5.4%), it is considered possible that this will become the longest period of economic recovery of the post-war era.1–4) In the world steel industry, movements in China and India were a distinctive feature of 2018. Although excess production capacity has been a problem in China for several years, the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC) was established by the G20 countries in 2016 to deal with this issue. The First Ministerial Meeting of the GFSEC was held in November 2017, followed by the Second Ministerial Meeting in September of 2018, and efforts to eliminate excess steel capacity in all countries were made through these meetings. In China as well, the government is promoting a plan to reduce crude steel production capacity, and as part of these efforts, illegal operations, represented by ditaiogang (inferior quality induction furnace steel), are to be eliminated completely. On the other hand, while there was a spreading feeling of stagnation in the auto industry and other steel-consuming industries in the second half of 2018 due to the effects of US-China trade friction, domestic demand in China had displayed a firm tone until then, and as a result, China’s crude steel production reached a historic high of 928.26 million tons in 2018. Crude steel production had been essentially flat at roughly 800 million tons in 2015 and 2016, but thanks to the adjustment of excess production capacity and expansion of domestic demand, production grew once again and achieved a level exceeding 900 million tons. India continued to maintain a high real GDP growth rate of more than 7% per year, supported by the public sector, including government spending, and gross fixed capital formation, and because steel demand also increased, crude steel production in 2018 rose to 106.46 million tons, which ranked 2nd in the world and exceeded Japan’s crude steel production (104.33 million tons in 2018) for the first time. Reflecting these trends, world crude steel production in 2018 reached 1 808.61 million tons, exceeding 1 800 million tons for the first time (Table 1).5) Next, turning to trends in the iron and steel industry in Japan, although the Japanese economy as a whole experienced a temporary stagnation due to the effects of the natural disasters that occurred around mid-year, there is now a basic tone of gradual recovery together with recovery from those disasters. In steel-consuming industries, while an adequate return to form could not be seen in the building construction field in the construction market and in the shipbuilding field in manufacturing industries, the trends were generally firm in other fields. Demand for urban development in the runup to the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics showed an increasing trend from two years ago and peaked in 2018. On the other hand, particularly among integrated steel makers, problems with production equipment could be seen here and there, and this also affected crude steel production. Reflecting these conditions, Japan’s crude steel production for 2018 (calendar) was 104.33 million tons, which was on roughly the same level (0.3% decrease) as the 104.66 million tons of the previous year (Fig. 1).6) Concerning trends in raw mate-