Climate Change Drives Increases in Extreme Events for Lake Ice in the Northern Hemisphere
Climate Change Drives Increases in Extreme Events for Lake Ice in the Northern Hemisphere
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DOI：
10.1029/2020gl089608
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发表时间：
2020-09-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Sharma, Sapna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Filazzola, Alessandro;Blagrave, Kevin;Sharma, Sapna
极端气候事件可能对生态系统乃至人类产生重大影响。每年冬天，世界上有超过5000万个湖泊通常会结冰，在历史上一直存在冰的湖泊中，冬季冰盖的缺失可以被描述为一种极端事件。我们利用122个湖泊78年的冰盖记录量化了极端气候事件对湖泊冰盖的影响，结果表明：（1）极端无冰期变得越来越频繁和严重，（2）冬季气温是大尺度气候振荡驱动的冰盖的重要预测因子，（3）极端温度与冰盖极端密切相关，（4）无冰期将导致未来冰盖的显著损失。如果不大幅减少碳排放，我们可以预期湖泊冰盖的广泛丧失可能会产生重大的社会经济和生物影响。
Extreme climate events can have significant consequences on ecosystems and by extension human populations. Over 50 million of the world's lakes typically freeze each winter, and the absence of winter ice cover, in lakes where ice has historically been present, can be characterized as an extreme event. We quantified the effects of extreme climate events on lake ice cover using 78-year ice records from 122 lakes to show that (1) extreme ice-free years are becoming more frequent and severe, (2) winter air temperature is a significant predictor of ice cover that was driven by large-scale climate oscillations, (3) extremes in temperature are closely related to extremes in ice cover, and (4) ice-free years are forecasted to result in significant loss of ice-cover in the future. Without drastic reductions in carbon emissions, we can expect the widespread loss of lake ice cover could have significant socioeconomic and biological implications.