Multi-regional input-output model for regional energy requirements and CO2 emissions in China
Multi-regional input-output model for regional energy requirements and CO2 emissions in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2006.04.018
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发表时间：
2007-03
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Qiao-Mei Liang;Ying Fan;Yi-Ming Wei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qiao-Mei Liang;Ying Fan;Yi-Ming Wei
在本研究中，中国被划分为八个经济区域。建立了中国多区域能源需求与CO2排放的投入产出模型，并对各经济区域2010年和2020年的情景和敏感性进行了分析。结果表明，到2020年，每个地区能源终端使用效率的提高可以产生区域内的能源节约。因此，应继续努力，推动提高每个区域的能源最终使用效率。在国家层面，应尽可能加快区域间能源转移的有效性，并提高中部和西北地区的效率。然而，人口增长将是增加能源需求的一个明显驱动力，并导致所有地区的二氧化碳排放量增加。随着经济的增长和家庭收入的提高，这种需求将增加。一个区域的人口增长不仅会显著影响该区域本身的能源需求，而且会推高其他区域的能源需求。在我国全面建设小康社会的重要时期，各地都要坚持计划生育基本国策。模型结果表明，区域排放量与区域造成的排放量之间存在相对误差。不同的责任认定对不同地区的环境政策改革会产生不同的影响。
In this study, China is divided into eight economic regions. A multi-regional input–output model for energy requirements and CO2emissions in China was established, and employed to perform scenario and sensitivity analysis for each economic region in year 2010 and 2020. Results show that up to year 2020, improvement in energy end-use efficiency for each region could generate intra-regional energy savings. Therefore, continuing efforts should be taken to advance improvements of energy end-use efficiency for each region. At the national level, the effectiveness of inter-regional energy transfers, and efficiency improvements in Central and Northwest regions should be accelerated as much as possible. However, population growth will be an obvious driving force for additional energy requirements and cause greater CO2emissions across all regions. This demand will increase with the growth of the economy and improvement in household incomes. Population growth in one region will not only significantly affect energy requirements of the region itself, but also drive up energy requirements of the other regions. During this important period in time when China is making efforts to build a well-rounded society, the basic state policy of family planning should be enforced for each region. Model results indicate that there exists relative error between emissions caused by a region and emissions emitted by that region. Different identification of responsibility will have understandable different impacts on most regions in environmental policy reform.