Robust Adaptation to Multiscale Climate Variability
Robust Adaptation to Multiscale Climate Variability
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2019ef001154
复制
发表时间：
2019-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Lall, Upmanu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Doss-Gollin, James;Farnham, David J.;Lall, Upmanu
评估和实施缓解气候风险的结构性或金融工具，需要在每项拟议工具的使用寿命期内预测未来的气候风险。在气候适应文献中经常被忽视的一点是，在规划期长和规划期短的项目之间，可预测性的物理来源是不同的：虽然历史和古气候记录强调低频变率模式，但预计人为气候变化会在更长的时间尺度上改变其发生。在本文中，我们提出了一组程式化的实验，以评估在有限的观测记录下，在有限的未来时期内估计未来气候风险所涉及的不确定性和偏差。这些实验考虑了潜在风险的准周期性和长期变化，以及从n年历史记录中估计这种风险的统计模型。通过等效样本量n来考虑类似ipcc的未来情景的不确定性。估计短期或长期风险的相对重要性取决于投资寿命m。在年际或年代际变率能够成功识别和预测的情况下，较短的设计寿命更可取，这突出了顺序投资策略对适应的重要性。
The assessment and implementation of structural or financial instruments for climate risk mitigation requires projections of future climate risk over the operational life of each proposed instrument. A point often neglected in the climate adaptation literature is that the physical sources of predictability differ between projects with long and short planning periods: While historical and paleo climate records emphasize low-frequency modes of variability, anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter their occurrence at longer time scales. In this paper we present a set of stylized experiments to assess the uncertainties and biases involved in estimating future climate risk over a finite future period, given a limited observational record. These experiments consider both quasi-periodic and secular change for the underlying risk, as well as statistical models for estimating this risk from an N-year historical record. The uncertainty of IPCC-like future scenarios is considered through an equivalent sample size N. The relative importance of estimating short- or long-term risk depends on the investment life M. Shorter design lives are preferred for situations where interannual to decadal variability can be successfully identified and predicted, highlighting the importance of sequential investment strategies for adaptation.