Designing Transitions from Civil War: Demobilization, Democratization, and Commitments to Peace
Designing Transitions from Civil War: Demobilization, Democratization, and Commitments to Peace
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设计内战的过渡：复员、民主化和对和平的承诺
DOI：
10.1162/016228899560077
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发表时间：
1999
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Barbara F. Walter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Barbara F. Walter
为什么一些内战谈判成功地结束了冲突，而另一些却失败了？在1940年至1990年间发生的41次内战中，有17次的参战人员发起了旨在结束战争的正式谈判在17个案例中的8个（47%），敌对双方签署并执行了成功的和平解决方案。然而，在另外9个案例中（53%），他们回到了战场。（病例列表见表1）战斗人员一旦开始谈判，恢复敌对行动的可能性几乎与签署和执行解决方案的可能性一样大，这一事实令人震惊，原因有二。第一，尽管合作面临种种障碍，参与几乎一半和平谈判的战斗人员确实成功地在战场外结束了冲突。第二，尽管战斗的代价很高，包括在战场上被消灭的可能性，但参与谈判的所有战斗人员中有一半以上选择重返战争。迄今为止，大多数学者和政策制定者都认为，内战谈判之所以失败，是因为交战双方没有兴趣合作
Why do some civil war negotiations succeed in ending conoict whereas others fail? Combatants in seventeen of the forty-one civil wars that occurred between 1940 and 1990 initiated formal negotiations designed to end their aghting.1 In eight of the seventeen cases (47 percent), the adversaries signed and implemented successful peace settlements. In nine other cases (53 percent), however, they returned to war. (See Table 1 for the list of cases.) The fact that combatants were almost as likely to resume hostilities once they initiated negotiations as they were to sign and implement a settlement is striking for two reasons. First, despite all the impediments to cooperation, combatants involved in almost half of all peace negotiations did succeed in ending their conoict off the battleaeld. Second, despite the high costs of aghting, including the possibility of elimination on the battleaeld, more than half of all combatants involved in negotiations chose to return to war. To date, most scholars and policymakers have assumed that civil war negotiations fail because the combatants have no interest in working together, they