An agent-based approach to modeling impacts of agricultural policy on land use, biodiversity and ecosystem services
An agent-based approach to modeling impacts of agricultural policy on land use, biodiversity and ecosystem services
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采用基于代理的方法模拟农业政策对土地利用、生物多样性和生态系统服务的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10980-012-9787-3
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发表时间：
2012-11-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Happe, Kathrin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Brady, Mark;Sahrbacher, Christoph;Happe, Kathrin
我们对基于主体的农业政策模拟器（AgriPoliS）模型进行了扩展，使其能够模拟农业政策改革对农民土地利用决策的影响，以及对真实农业区域景观马赛克、生物多样性和生态系统服务的伴随影响。观察到的农场人口被建模为一个多主体系统，其中单个农场主体的行为及其相互作用（主要是对土地的竞争）通过优化框架定义，土地利用和景观影响导致系统的紧急属性。该模型是根据农场和待研究景观的真实数据进行校准的。我们通过评估欧盟共同农业政策（CAP）的三个备选框架对两个边缘农业区景观价值的潜在影响来说明该模型的实用性。研究发现，在其中一种景观中，马赛克值对政策方案的选择很敏感，而在景观尺度上，两种区域的物种丰富度和物种组成都存在显著的权衡。研究发现，粮食生产与其他生态系统服务之间的关系是多方面的。这就说明了在一个特定地区，用简单或一般的土地管理规则（如目前附加在cap直接付款上的规则）实现景观目标的困难。鉴于保护资金短缺，分配直接付款的水平和条件对于保护边缘农业区的景观价值可能非常重要（取决于其他支持的水平）。
We present extensions to the agent-based agricultural policy simulator (AgriPoliS) model that make it possible to simulate the consequences of agricultural policy reform on farmers' land use decisions and concomitant impacts on landscape mosaic, biodiversity and ecosystem services in a real agricultural region. An observed population of farms is modelled as a multi-agent system where individual farm-agent behaviour and their interactions-principally competition for land-are defined through an optimization framework with land use and landscape impacts resulting as emergent properties of the system. The model is calibrated to real data on the farms and the landscape to be studied. We illustrate the utility of the model by evaluating the potential impacts of three alternative frameworks for the European Union Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on landscape values in two marginal agricultural regions. Mosaic value was found to be sensitive to the choice of policy scheme in one of the landscapes, whereas significant trade-offs were shown to occur in terms of species richness by habitat and species composition at the landscape scale in both regions. The relationship between food production and other ecosystem services was found to be multifaceted. Thus illustrating the difficulty of achieving landscape goals in a particular region with simple or general land management rules (such as the current rules attached to CAPs direct payments). Given the scarcity of funding for conservation, the level and conditions for allocating direct payments are, potentially, of great importance for preserving landscape values in marginal agricultural regions (subject to levels of other support).