The role of seasonality and import in a minimalistic multi-strain dengue model capturing differences between primary and secondary infections: Complex dynamics and its implications for data analysis
The role of seasonality and import in a minimalistic multi-strain dengue model capturing differences between primary and secondary infections: Complex dynamics and its implications for data analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.043
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发表时间：
2011-11-21
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Stollenwerk, Nico
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aguiar, Maira;Ballesteros, Sebastien;Stollenwerk, Nico
在亚洲和南美洲的许多国家，登革热（DF）和登革出血热（DHF）已成为重大公共卫生问题，导致严重的社会经济损失。描述登革热病毒传播的数学模型主要集中在所谓的抗体依赖性增强（ADE）效应和临时交叉免疫上，试图通过分析现有数据来解释登革热流行的不规则行为。然而，迄今为止尚未对可能的动力结构进行系统的研究。我们的研究重点是受登革热流行病学启发，具有暂时交叉免疫和可能继发感染的季节性强迫（非自主）模型。在简约模型中需要至少两种不同菌株的概念来描述原发感染（通常无症状）和继发感染（与疾病的严重形式相关）之间的差异。我们通过添加季节性强迫、模仿矢量动态以及感染个体的低进口量来扩展之前研究的非季节性（自主）模型，这在登革热流行的动态中是现实的。对三种不同情景（非季节性、淡季和旺季且感染个体输入量低）进行了比较研究。扩展模型显示出复杂的动态变化，并且在经验 DHF 监测数据与获得的模型模拟之间具有良好的一致性。我们讨论了季节性强迫的作用和受感染个体在此类系统中的输入、生物学相关性及其对现有登革热数据分析的影响。目前，只有这样的简约模型才有机会得到很好的定性理解，并最终根据现有数据进行测试。该模型的简单性（参数和状态变量数量较少）为从 DHF 案例通知推断参数值提供了有希望的前景。 (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
In many countries in Asia and South-America dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) has become a substantial public health concern leading to serious social-economic costs. Mathematical models describing the transmission of dengue viruses have focussed on the so-called antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) effect and temporary cross-immunity trying to explain the irregular behavior of dengue epidemics by analyzing available data. However, no systematic investigation of the possible dynamical structures has been performed so far. Our study focuses on a seasonally forced (non-autonomous) model with temporary cross-immunity and possible secondary infection, motivated by dengue fever epidemiology. The notion of at least two different strains is needed in a minimalistic model to describe differences between primary infections, often asymptomatic, and secondary infection, associated with the severe form of the disease. We extend the previously studied non-seasonal (autonomous) model by adding seasonal forcing, mimicking the vectorial dynamics, and a low import of infected individuals, which is realistic in the dynamics of dengue fever epidemics. A comparative study between three different scenarios (non-seasonal, low seasonal and high seasonal with a low import of infected individuals) is performed. The extended models show complex dynamics and qualitatively a good agreement between empirical DHF monitoring data and the obtained model simulation. We discuss the role of seasonal forcing and the import of infected individuals in such systems, the biological relevance and its implications for the analysis of the available dengue data. At the moment only such minimalistic models have a chance to be qualitatively understood well and eventually tested against existing data. The simplicity of the model (low number of parameters and state variables) offer a promising perspective on parameter values inference from the DHF case notifications. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.