Farmer intentional pathways for net zero carbon: Exploring the lock-in effects of forestry and renewables
Farmer intentional pathways for net zero carbon: Exploring the lock-in effects of forestry and renewables
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DOI：
10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105861
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发表时间：
2022-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Thomson, S. G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barnes, A. P.;McMillan, J.;Thomson, S. G.
气候智能型农业要求粮食生产与隔离温室气体排放的做法同时进行。鉴于要求在世纪中期实现净零排放，农业政策目前正在寻求将气候智能型办法纳入未来的支持计划。路径依赖，即过去的选择对决策的影响，已经被发现会限制未来的增长路径。我们应用这一概念在苏格兰的2494农民的调查，了解他们的意图对吸收两个突出的气候智能方法，即林业扩张和农场可再生能源。我们采用了双变量概率模型来估计这两个活动的单一和联合的依赖关系内的农场决策框架。继任规划、农业多样化水平和风险寻求观念等因素被认为与影响吸收呈正相关。然而，对吸收的最强预测因素是这些活动过去的扩展，相反，对于那些不打算增加活动的人来说，这是一个限制因素。这提供了一些证据，表明路径依赖将限制大规模采用以实现净零目标。我们主张采取双重干预方法，区分过去的收养者和那些不愿意收养的人。对这两个群体提供更多有针对性的支助，将有助于实现这些高级别的政策目标。
Climate smart farming requires food production to sit alongside practices which sequester greenhouse gas emissions. Given the requirement to meet net zero emissions by the middle of the century, agricultural policies are now seeking to embed climate smart approaches within future support schemes. Path dependency, the influence of past choices on decision making, has been found to constrain future growth pathways. We apply this concept within a survey of 2494 farmers in Scotland to understand their intentions towards uptake of two prominent climate smart approaches, namely forestry expansion and on-farm renewable energy. We employ a bivariate probit model to estimate the single and joint dependences of these two activities within a farm decision making framework. Factors such as succession planning, the level of agricultural diversification and risk seeking perceptions were found to be positively related to influencing uptake. However, the strongest predictors for uptake were past expansion of these activities and, conversely, a limiting factor for those who did not intend to increase activities. This provides some evidence that path dependencies will limit large scale adoption to meet a net zero target. We argue for a dual approach to intervention which differentiates between past adopters and those who are reluctant to adopt. More targetted support for these two cohorts would address these high level policy ambitions.