A Predictive Nomogram for Early Death of Metastatic Gastric Cancer: A Retrospective Study in the SEER Database and China
A Predictive Nomogram for Early Death of Metastatic Gastric Cancer: A Retrospective Study in the SEER Database and China
复制标题
转移性胃癌早期死亡的预测列线图：SEER 数据库和中国的回顾性研究
DOI：
10.7150/jca.46563
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Yu, Dandan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhu, Ying;Fang, Xiongfeng;Yu, Dandan
背景：识别转移性胃癌患者早期死亡的相关危险因素并建立预测诺模图。研究方法：在我们的癌症中心，SEER队列中共有4575例患者，中国队列中有220例患者被诊断为转移性胃癌。单变量和多变量逻辑回归模型用于识别早期死亡的独立风险变量。建立了预测诺模图和基于网络的概率计算器，并通过中国队列的受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线和校准图进行了验证。结果如下：采用单因素和多因素Logistic回归模型，筛选出8个影响转移性胃癌患者早期死亡的独立危险因素，包括种族、分级、手术、化疗、骨、脑、肝、肺转移。通过包含这些变量，在SEER队列中构建了预测列线图和基于网络的概率计算器。然后，通过受试者工作特征曲线和校准图在中国队列中进行了验证。结论：该诺模图模型为鉴别转移性胃癌患者早期死亡提供了一种有意义的实用工具。
Background: To identify associated risk factors and develop a predictive nomogram for the early death of metastatic gastric cancer patients. Methods: A total of 4575 patients in the SEER cohort and 220 patients in the Chinese cohort diagnosed with metastatic gastric cancer in our Cancer Center were obtained. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify independent risk variables for early death. A predictive nomogram and a web-based probability calculator were developed and then validated by receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve and calibration plot in a Chinese cohort. Results: Eight independent variables, including race, grade, surgery, chemotherapy, and metastases of bone, brain, liver, lung were recognized by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models for identifying independent risk variables of early death about metastatic gastric cancer patients. By comprising these variables, a predictive nomogram and a web-based probability calculator were constructed in the SEER cohort. Then, it could be validated well in the Chinese cohort by receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve and calibration plot. Conclusion: Using this nomogram model provided an insightful and applicable tool to distinguish the early death of metastatic gastric cancer patients.