Potential Effects of Habitat Change on Migratory Bird Movements and Avian Influenza Transmission in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway
Potential Effects of Habitat Change on Migratory Bird Movements and Avian Influenza Transmission in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway
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DOI：
10.3390/d15050601
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发表时间：
2023-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Takekawa;D. Prosser;Jeffery D. Sullivan;Shenglai Yin;Xinxin Wang;Geli Zhang;Xiangming Xiao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Takekawa;D. Prosser;Jeffery D. Sullivan;Shenglai Yin;Xinxin Wang;Geli Zhang;Xiangming Xiao
野生水鸟，尤其是野生水禽，被认为是禽流感病毒的储存库，传播可能发生在农业与野生动物的接触面。过去几十年来，禽流感在中国沿东亚-澳大利西亚迁飞路线（EAAF）反复出现，那里发生了广泛的栖息地改变。 EAAF 的快速环境变化，特别是稻田农业的分布变化，有可能影响野生候鸟的迁徙以及农业与野生动物界面溢出的可能性。为了开始了解这些变化可能对水禽和疾病传播风险产生的潜在影响，我们根据水禽遥测数据创建了动态布朗桥运动模型（dBBMM）。我们使用这些 dBMM 模型创建假设场景，预测水禽分布相对于通过遥感量化的近期水稻分布变化的可能变化。根据经验数据预测，我们的模型研究了一系列反应，其中稻田可用性的增加将推动水禽的使用增加，而可用性的降低将导致使用量的减少。我们的情景结果表明，在中国东南部，水稻农业相对较小的减少可能会导致中途栖息地的急剧丧失，而在中国东北，稻田的增加应该为水禽提供新的活动区域。最后，我们探讨了水禽分布变化的这种情况如何影响禽流感传播的可能性。我们的研究结果通过结合预测候鸟栖息地利用随时间变化的差异的真实数据，提供了对不断变化的疾病传播威胁的深入了解。
Wild waterbirds, and especially wild waterfowl, are considered to be a reservoir for avian influenza viruses, with transmission likely occurring at the agricultural-wildlife interface. In the past few decades, avian influenza has repeatedly emerged in China along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF), where extensive habitat conversion has occurred. Rapid environmental changes in the EAAF, especially distributional changes in rice paddy agriculture, have the potential to affect both the movements of wild migratory birds and the likelihood of spillover at the agricultural-wildlife interface. To begin to understand the potential implications such changes may have on waterfowl and disease transmission risk, we created dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models (dBBMM) based on waterfowl telemetry data. We used these dBBMM models to create hypothetical scenarios that would predict likely changes in waterfowl distribution relative to recent changes in rice distribution quantified through remote sensing. Our models examined a range of responses in which increased availability of rice paddies would drive increased use by waterfowl and decreased availability would result in decreased use, predicted from empirical data. Results from our scenarios suggested that in southeast China, relatively small decreases in rice agriculture could lead to dramatic loss of stopover habitat, and in northeast China, increases in rice paddies should provide new areas that can be used by waterfowl. Finally, we explored the implications of how such scenarios of changing waterfowl distribution may affect the potential for avian influenza transmission. Our results provide advance understanding of changing disease transmission threats by incorporating real-world data that predicts differences in habitat utilization by migratory birds over time.