Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility: A Spurious Relationship?
Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility: A Spurious Relationship?
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人口统计与经济周期波动：虚假关系？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Vierke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gerdie Everaert;H. Vierke
本文复制了三项关于劳动力年龄构成对经济周期波动性影响的研究的估计结果，并调查它们是否表示有意义的长期关系。我们发现，无论是波动年龄劳动力份额变量和商业周期波动性措施表现出非平稳行为，但没有发现强有力的协整证据。因此，文献中报告的估计结果可能是虚假的。这一结论进一步得到以下发现的支持：（i）当使用CCEP估计量解释横截面依赖性时，强关系消失;（ii）对样本组成的微小变化、数据修订以及波动年龄劳动力份额的确切定义高度敏感。
This paper replicates the estimation results of three studies on the impact of the age composition of the labor force on business cycle volatility and investigates whether they signal a meaningful long-run relationship. We show that both the volatile-age labor force share variable and the business cycle volatility measure exhibit non-stationary behavior but find no robust evidence of cointegration. Hence, the estimation results reported in the literature may be spurious. This conclusion is further supported by the finding that the strong relationship (i) disappears when cross-sectional dependence is accounted for using the CCEP estimator and (ii) is highly sensitive to small changes in the composition of the sample, to data revisions, and to the exact definition of the volatile-age labor share.