Household level fuel switching in rural Hubei
Household level fuel switching in rural Hubei
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DOI：
10.1016/j.esd.2010.07.001
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发表时间：
2010-09-01
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Pan, Jiahua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peng, Wuyuan;Hisham, Zerriffi;Pan, Jiahua
中国大多数农村居民依赖传统燃料，但有关中国农村燃料转换过程的现有数据的质量和数量不足以清楚地了解当前状况和对未来有依据的展望。基于对 2004 年湖北省农村家庭调查数据的分析，我们利用统计方法在燃料转换的概念框架内探讨了居民燃料使用模式。横截面数据显示，从生物质到现代商业能源的转变仍处于早期阶段，收入可能必须大幅增加才能使绝对生物质使用量下降，而且由于不同能源的可用性差异，不同地理区域的住宅燃料使用量差异很大。使用 logit 和 tobit 模型的回归分析表明，收入、燃料价格、人口特征和地形对燃料转换有显着影响。此外，虽然正在发生转换，但煤炭似乎是农村家庭生物质的主要替代品。鉴于家庭燃煤是造成中国总体空气污染以及室内空气污染对健康造成负面影响的主要原因，因此进一步过渡到沼气、液化石油气、天然气和电力等现代清洁燃料非常重要。新农村建设带来的进一步收入增长以及现代清洁能源可及性的改善将在转换过程中发挥关键作用。 (C) 2010 年国际能源倡议。由爱思唯尔公司出版。保留所有权利。
The majority of rural residents in China are dependent on traditional fuels, but the quality and quantity of existing data on the process of fuel switching in rural China are insufficient to have a clear picture of current conditions and a well-grounded outlook for the future. Based on an analysis of a rural household survey data in Hubei province in 2004, we explore patterns of residential fuel use within the conceptual framework of fuel switching using statistical approaches. Cross-sectional data show that the transition from biomass to modern commercial sources is still at an early stage, incomes may have to rise substantially in order for absolute biomass use to fall, and residential fuel use varies tremendously across geographic regions due to disparities in availability of different energy sources. Regression analysis using logit and tobit models suggest that income, fuel prices, demographic characteristics, and topography have significant effects on fuel switching. Moreover, while switching is occurring, the commercial energy source which appears to be the principal substitute for biomass in rural households is coal. Given that burning coal in the household is a major contributor to general air pollution in China and to negative health outcomes due to indoor air pollution, further transition to modern and clean fuels such as biogas, LPG, natural gas and electricity is important. Further income growth induced by New Countryside Construction and improvement of modern and clean energy accessibility will play a critical role in the switching process. (C) 2010 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.