The effect of temperature on mortality in rural Bangladesha population-based time-series study
The effect of temperature on mortality in rural Bangladesha population-based time-series study
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/dyn376
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发表时间：
2009-12-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Yunus, Mohammad
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hashizume, Masahiro;Wagatsuma, Yukiko;Yunus, Mohammad
方法 使用广义线性泊松回归模型对全因和选定原因的每日死亡率时间序列与温度进行回归，并控制季节性和年际变化、星期几和公共假期。 1994年1月至2002年12月间，孟加拉国Matlab人口监测中的居民除外因外，总共有13 270例全因死亡。 结果 在滞后013天的时间里，全因死亡以及低温下心血管、呼吸系统和围产期原因造成的死亡明显增加。平均温度每降低 1°C，全因死亡率就会增加 3.2 (95 CI 0.95.5)。然而，对于所检查的任何滞后，热度对全因死亡率都没有明显的影响。结论这项研究发现，每日死亡率随着前几周的低温而增加，而在孟加拉国农村地区，高温与每日死亡率之间没有发现任何关联。特别是对于小婴儿，应考虑低温期间的预防措施。
Methods A generalized linear Poisson regression model was used to regress a time-series of daily mortality for all-cause and selected causes against temperature, controlling for seasonal and interannual variations, day of week and public holidays. A total of 13 270 all-cause deaths excluding external causes for residents under demographic surveillance in Matlab, Bangladesh were available between January 1994 and December 2002.Results There was a marked increase in all-cause deaths and deaths due to cardiovascular, respiratory and perinatal causes at low temperatures over a lag of 013 days. Every 1C decrease in mean temperature was associated with a 3.2 (95 CI 0.95.5) increase in all-cause mortality. However, there was no clear heat effect on all-cause mortality for any of the lags examined.Conclusions This study found that daily mortality increased with low temperatures in the preceding weeks, while there was no association found between high temperatures and daily mortality in rural Bangladesh. Preventive measures during low temperatures should be considered especially for young infants.