Water Resources – An Analysis of Trends, Weak Signals and Wild Cards with Implications for Russia
Water Resources – An Analysis of Trends, Weak Signals and Wild Cards with Implications for Russia
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水资源——对俄罗斯影响的趋势、微弱信号和不确定因素分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Kyzyngasheva
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
O. Saritas;L. Proskuryakova;E. Kyzyngasheva
水资源对生命的延续至关重要。人类和生物物种需要淡水来饮用和卫生，而大多数经济部门的工业本身的某些生产过程也需要水。在全球一级，获取淡水是一项重大挑战，主要原因是用水量增加、资源补充率低以及气候变化等外部因素大大减少了可用水量。要解决现有的水问题，就需要采取系统的办法，实现水资源的可持续利用，同时推进水基础设施建设，提供水的循环利用。俄罗斯是其中一个国家，与世界上许多其他国家相比，俄罗斯在水资源可用性方面处于相对有利的地位。但是，在水资源的保护和利用、净化过程、水网、消费模式、排放、处理和再使用方面仍然存在相当大的问题。本研究的重点是俄罗斯的水资源利用，并通过前瞻性研究制定了一个长期的观点。第一步涉及扫描练习，其次是第二步的未来设想，第三步的行动战略建议。本文给出了扫描相位的结果。本文由四个部分组成。引言部分回顾了水资源的关键问题和挑战。第一部分阐述了详细的研究方法。此外，在研究过程中确定了趋势和不确定性，并讨论了它们对俄罗斯水资源的影响。特别注意研究范围内确定的三个领域的最新情况：水系统的可持续性、家庭和工业用水以及新的水产品和服务。第三部分描述了弱信号和通配符。论文最后简要描述了研究的下一阶段和项目中计划的后续活动。
Water resources are crucial for the continuity of life. Humans and living species need fresh water for drinking and sanitation, while industries in most sectors of the economy need water for some part of production processes themselves. Access to fresh water is a grand challenge at the global level, mainly due to increasing water consumption, a low rate of replenishment of resources as well as external factors, like climate change, that significantly reduce amount of water available. The solutions to the existing water problems require systemic approaches for the sustainable use of water resources, while advancing water infrastructure and providing circular use of water. Russia is one of the countries, which is relatively better positioned compared to a number of other countries in the world regarding the availability of water resources. However, there are still considerable issues regarding the protection and use of water resources, purification processes, water networks, consumption patterns, discharge, treatment and re-use. The present study focuses on the use of water resources in Russia with a long term perspective developed through a Foresight study. The first step involved a scanning exercise, to be followed by future scenarios on the second step, and strategy proposals for action on the third one. The paper presents the results of the scanning phase. The present paper consists of four parts. The introduction reviews the key issues and challenges concerning water resources. The first part describes the detailed research methodology. Furthermore, trends and uncertainties are identified in the course of the study, and their implications for water resources in Russia are discussed. Particular attention is paid to state-of-the-art situation in three domains identified in the scope of research: sustainability of water systems, water use by households and industry, and new water products and services. Weak signals and wild cards are described in the third part. The paper concludes with a brief description of the next phases of the study and follow-up activities planned in the project.