Nowcasting Indicators of Poverty Risk in the European Union: A Microsimulation Approach
Nowcasting Indicators of Poverty Risk in the European Union: A Microsimulation Approach
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DOI：
10.1007/s11205-013-0491-8
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发表时间：
2014-10-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Sutherland, Holly
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Navicke, Jekaterina;Rastrigina, Olga;Sutherland, Holly
贫困风险率是用于监测欧洲2020年减少贫困和社会排斥目标进展情况的三个指标之一。这一指标的及时性对于监测政策的有效性至关重要。然而，由于欧洲联盟收入和生活条件统计的复杂性，贫穷风险估计数的公布延迟了2-3年。本文介绍了一种方法，可用于估计（“nowcast”）目前的贫困风险率为欧洲联盟（欧盟）国家的基础上，欧盟-SILC微观数据从以前的时期。欧盟税收-福利微观模拟模型EUROMOD结合最新的宏观统计数据用于这一目的。该方法的验证使用欧盟-收入收入调查数据2007年的收入，以估计2008-2012年的贫困风险率，并与欧盟-收入调查和其他外部统计数据的实际预测进行比较。该方法是测试的八个欧盟国家是那些经历最动荡的经济条件在此期间：爱沙尼亚，希腊，西班牙，意大利，拉脱维亚，立陶宛，葡萄牙和罗马尼亚。
The at-risk-of-poverty rate is one of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Timeliness of this indicator is critical for monitoring the effectiveness of policies. However, due to complicated nature of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) poverty risk estimates are published with a 2-3 years delay. This paper presents a method that can be used to estimate ("nowcast") the current at-risk-of-poverty rate for the European Union (EU) countries based on EU-SILC microdata from a previous period. The EU tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD is used for this purpose in combination with up to date macro-level statistics. The method is validated by using EU-SILC data for 2007 incomes to estimate at-risk-of-poverty rates for 2008-2012 and to compare the predictions with actual EU-SILC and other external statistics. The method is tested on eight EU countries which are among those experiencing the most volatile economic conditions within the period: Estonia, Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal and Romania.