Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool?
Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool?
复制标题
索诺兰沙漠正在失去凉爽吗？
DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01020.x
复制
发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
J. Overpeck
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Weiss;J. Overpeck
冰冻温度强烈影响北美最热沙漠中的植被，在一定程度上决定了其整体边界和植物物种的分布。为了评估在这种情况下冻结温度的近期变化，研究了索诺兰沙漠气象站的最低温度数据。数据显示冬季和春季普遍变暖趋势，冻结温度频率减少，无冻结季节延长，每年冬季最低气温升高。局部土地利用和全球气候系统的多年代际模式，如太平洋年代际振荡和大西洋多年代际振荡，似乎不是这种变暖的主要驱动因素。然而，索诺兰沙漠的最低温度变化确实与人类主导的全球变暖导致的全球温度变化相对应。随着整个21世纪升温速度的加快，潜在的生态响应可能包括索诺兰沙漠东南部的整体边界收缩，向北、向东和海拔向上扩展，以及索诺兰沙漠生态系统内植物物种分布和其他特征的变化。暖季降水变率和火灾的不确定变化可能会影响索诺兰沙漠地区植被变化的潜在轨迹，或使其更难以预测。现在有机会调查生态系统对区域气候扰动的响应，以及预测和规划索诺兰沙漠地区的持续变暖。
Freezing temperatures strongly influence vegetation in the hottest desert of North America, in part determining both its overall boundary and distributions of plant species within. To evaluate recent variability of freezing temperatures in this context, minimum temperature data from weather stations in the Sonoran Desert are examined. Data show widespread warming trends in winter and spring, decreased frequency of freezing temperatures, lengthening of the freeze‐free season, and increased minimum temperatures per winter year. Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does, however, correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human‐dominated global warming. With warming expected to continue at faster rates throughout the 21st century, potential ecological responses may include contraction of the overall boundary of the Sonoran Desert in the south‐east and expansion northward, eastward, and upward in elevation, as well as changes to distributions of plant species within and other characteristics of Sonoran Desert ecosystems. Potential trajectories of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert region may be affected or made more difficult to predict by uncertain changes in warm season precipitation variability and fire. Opportunities now exist to investigate ecosystem response to regional climate disturbance, as well as to anticipate and plan for continued warming in the Sonoran Desert region.