African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates
African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1
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发表时间：
2022-02-10
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Simpson, Nicholas P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vousdoukas, Michalis, I;Clarke, Joanne;Simpson, Nicholas P.
许多遗产地位于沿海地区，受到气候变化造成的海平面上升的威胁。非洲大陆对284个非洲遗产地的暴露评估显示，20%的遗产地目前处于危险之中，在中等和高排放情景下，这一比例增加了两倍多。非洲海岸包含“突出的普遍价值”遗产地，面临着人为气候变化的日益增加的风险。在这里，我们生成了一个包含213个自然和71个非洲文化遗产的数据库，以评估中等（RCP 4.5）和高（RCP 8.5）温室气体排放情景下沿海洪水和侵蚀的风险。目前，56个遗址（20%）面临百年一遇的沿海极端事件的风险，包括阿尔及利亚的提帕萨遗址和埃及的北西奈考古遗址区。到2050年，受影响的地点数量预计将增加两倍以上，达到近200个高排放地点。从RCP 8.5到RCP 4.5的排放缓解将非常高暴露的站点数量减少了25%。这些研究结果突出表明，迫切需要加强非洲遗产地的气候变化适应能力，包括治理和管理方法、特定遗址的脆弱性评估、暴露监测和保护战略。
Many heritage sites are threatened by rising sea levels under climate change as they lie within the coastal zone. A continental assessment of exposure of 284 African heritage sites shows that 20% of sites are currently at risk, which more than triples under moderate and high emission scenarios.The African coast contains heritage sites of 'Outstanding Universal Value' that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.