Evaluation of 30 urban land surface models in the Urban-PLUMBER project: Phase 1 results
Evaluation of 30 urban land surface models in the Urban-PLUMBER project: Phase 1 results
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DOI：
10.1002/qj.4589
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发表时间：
2023-10-25
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Pitman，Andy J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lipson，Mathew J.;Grimmond，Sue;Pitman，Andy J.
准确预测城市天气和气候对于保障人类健康和加强城市复原力至关重要。多模型评估可以改进模型;然而，十多年来，以城市为中心的地表模型尚未进行重大相互比较。在Urban-PLUBER项目的第一阶段，我们评估了30个陆面模型模拟对大气气象和空气质量模拟至关重要的地表能量通量的能力。我们使用简单的信息有限模型作为基准，为参与模型建立最低和最高性能期望。与上一次在同一地点进行的主要模式比对相比，我们发现当前队列对短波辐射、感热和潜热通量的预测有了广泛的改进，但长波辐射和动量通量的改进很少或没有。具有简单城市表示的模型（例如，“slab”方案）通常表现良好，特别是在与复杂的水文/植被模型相结合时。一些中等复杂度的模型（例如，“峡谷”方案）也表现良好，表明整合植被和水文过程的努力已经取得了回报。解决建筑物之间三维相互作用的最复杂的模型通常没有表现得像其他类别一样好。然而，这些模型也往往有最简单的表示水文和植被。没有任何城市代表性的模型（即，植被-只有陆面模式）表现不佳的潜热通量，合理的其他能量通量在这个郊区的网站。我们的分析发现，在初始提交中存在广泛的人为错误，这些错误严重影响了模型的性能。虽然显着的努力，以纠正这些错误，我们的结论是，人为因素可能会影响结果在这个（或任何）模型的相互比较，特别是在参与科学家有不同的经验和第一语言。这些初步结果是针对一个郊区站点的，Urban-PLUBER的未来阶段将评估不同城市和区域气候带的20个站点的模型。
Accurately predicting weather and climate in cities is critical for safeguarding human health and strengthening urban resilience. Multimodel evaluations can lead to model improvements; however, there have been no major intercomparisons of urban‐focussed land surface models in over a decade. Here, in Phase 1 of the Urban‐PLUMBER project, we evaluate the ability of 30 land surface models to simulate surface energy fluxes critical to atmospheric meteorological and air quality simulations. We establish minimum and upper performance expectations for participating models using simple information‐limited models as benchmarks. Compared with the last major model intercomparison at the same site, we find broad improvement in the current cohort's predictions of short‐wave radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, but little or no improvement in long‐wave radiation and momentum fluxes. Models with a simple urban representation (e.g., ‘slab’ schemes) generally perform well, particularly when combined with sophisticated hydrological/vegetation models. Some mid‐complexity models (e.g., ‘canyon’ schemes) also perform well, indicating efforts to integrate vegetation and hydrology processes have paid dividends. The most complex models that resolve three‐dimensional interactions between buildings in general did not perform as well as other categories. However, these models also tended to have the simplest representations of hydrology and vegetation. Models without any urban representation (i.e., vegetation‐only land surface models) performed poorly for latent heat fluxes, and reasonably for other energy fluxes at this suburban site. Our analysis identified widespread human errors in initial submissions that substantially affected model performances. Although significant efforts are applied to correct these errors, we conclude that human factors are likely to influence results in this (or any) model intercomparison, particularly where participating scientists have varying experience and first languages. These initial results are for one suburban site, and future phases of Urban‐PLUMBER will evaluate models across 20 sites in different urban and regional climate zones.