Development of a new global Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI)
Development of a new global Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI)
复制标题
制定新的全球火山灾害指数（VHI）
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. L. Palma
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Auker;S. Sparks;S. Jenkins;W. Aspinall;S. Brown;N. Deligne;G. Jolly;S. Loughlin;W. Marzocchi;C. Newhall;J. L. Palma
背景全球有超过8亿人生活在有可能受到火山灾害影响的地区，而且这一数字还在增长[第4章]。因此，对潜在火山灾害的全球范围和相关威胁作出知情判断的必要性比以往任何时候都更加迫切。还必须确定风险相对较高的地区，在这些地区进行研究和采取减少风险措施可能是最好的重点。不同的作者使用不同的技术，在不同的空间尺度上处理了这项任务。在一些经过充分研究的火山中，地质记录与数值模拟相结合，创建了火山流和火山灰瀑布的概率危险图[第6章和第20章]。这种信息来源在平静时期的土地利用规划和动乱时期的应急规划中可能非常有益。不幸的是，为所有火山创建高分辨率的概率危险地图还不可行。因此，需要一种能够普遍和一致地适用的火山危险评估方法，减少数据和计算密集度。这种办法的目的是在某种客观的总体基础上确定构成最大危险的火山，以便能够对它们进行更深入的调查和减少灾害风险的努力。以前的方法是一种基于指数的火山危险评估方法，涉及为一系列指标分配分数，然后将这些指标组合在一起，得出总体危险分数。指标通常包括喷发频率、不同类型喷发及其相关危险的相对发生情况、这些危险的足迹以及喷发规模。指数非常适合于火山危险评估问题，因为它们允许将复杂系统分解为一套火山系统控制和简单的量化变量和因素，共同表征潜在威胁。Ewert(2007)提出了一种基于指数的方法，用于评估美国的火山威胁(灾害和暴露的组合)，以便确定研究、监测和缓解的优先顺序。
Background Globally, more than 800 million people live in areas that have the potential to be affected by volcanic hazards, and this number is growing [Chapter 4]. The need for informed judgements regarding the global extent of potential volcanic hazards and the relative threats is therefore more pressing than ever. There is also an imperative to identify areas of relatively high hazard where studies and risk reduction measures may be best focussed. Various authors have tackled this task at a range of spatial scales, using a variety of techniques. At some well-studied volcanoes, the geological record has been used in combination with numerical modelling to create probabilistic hazard maps of volcanic flows and tephra fall [Chapter 6 and 20]. Such sources of information can be hugely beneficial in land use planning during times of quiescence and in emergency planning during times of unrest. Unfortunately, creating high-resolution probabilistic hazard maps for all volcanoes is not yet feasible. There is therefore a need for a methodology for volcanic hazard assessment that can be applied universally and consistently, which is less data-and computing-intensive. The aim of such an approach is to identify, on some objective overall basis, those volcanoes that pose the greatest danger, in order that more indepth investigations and disaster risk reduction efforts can then be focused on them. Previous methods An index-based approach to volcanic hazard assessment involves assigning scores to a series of indicators, which are then combined to give an overall hazard score. Indicators typically include measures of the frequency of eruptions, the relative occurrence of different kinds of eruptions and their related hazards, the footprints of these hazards, and eruption size. Indices are well suited to the problem of volcanic hazard assessment, as they allow the decomposition of the complex system into a suite of volcanic system controls and simple quantitative variables and factors that jointly characterise threat potential. Ewert (2007) presented an index-based methodology for assessing volcanic threat (the combination of hazard and exposure) in the USA, to permit prioritisation of research, monitoring and mitigation.