An evaluation method for uncertainties in regional climate projections
An evaluation method for uncertainties in regional climate projections
复制标题
区域气候预测不确定性评估方法
DOI：
10.1002/asl.877
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Tomita Hirofumi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adachi Sachiho A.;Nishizawa Seiya;Ando Kazuto;Yamaura Tsuyoshi;Yoshida Ryuji;Yashiro Hisashi;Kajikawa Yoshiyuki;Tomita Hirofumi
区域气候预测不可避免地继承了大气环流模式（GCM）的不确定性。因此，我们提出了一种识别主要不确定性的新方法。该方法采用了阿达奇等人的降尺度方法，利用多个GCM投影解决不确定性问题。大尺度大气状态的平均状态和与该平均状态的偏差是这里考虑的两个不确定性因子，其由GCM提供。这两个因素分别被称为气候和扰动分量。为了证明在确定这些不确定性因素使用所提出的方法的有效性，在日本西部的夏季气候的区域预测进行使用四个不同的未来气候数据，使用不同的海表温度的大气GCM计算。结果表明，地面气温预测的变率是合理的气候不确定性，而降水预测的变率同样受到气候和扰动不确定性的影响。因此，在分析区域气候预测时，应考虑气候学和扰动不确定性。
Regional climate projections inevitably inherit uncertainties from general circulation models (GCMs). We therefore propose a new approach for identifying the dominant uncertainties. This approach employs the downscaling procedure by Adachi et al. to the uncertainty problem using multiple GCM projections. The mean state of the large‐scale atmospheric states and the deviation from this mean state are the two uncertainty factors considered here, which are provided by a GCM. These two factors are referred to as climatology and perturbation components, respectively. To demonstrate the effectiveness in identifying these uncertainty factors using the proposed approach, a regional projection of summertime climate in western Japan is conducted using four different future climate data that are calculated using an atmospheric GCM with different sea surface temperatures. Results show that the variability in surface air temperature projections is reasonably derived from the climatology uncertainty, whereas the variability in precipitation projections is equally influenced by the climatology and perturbation uncertainties. Both the climatology and perturbation uncertainties should therefore be considered when analysing regional climate projections.
CONeP：区域大气模型的经济有效的在线嵌套程序
DOI：
10.1016/j.parco.2017.04.004
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
Parallel Comput.
影响因子：
--
作者：
Ryuji Yoshida;S. Nishizawa;H. Yashiro;S. Adachi;Yousuke Sato;T. Yamaura;H. Tomita
通讯作者：
H. Tomita
驱动降尺度的大尺度大气状态分解：区域气候研究动态降尺度的视角
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
S. Nishizawa;S. Adachi;Y. Kajikawa;T. Yamaura;K. Ando;Ryuji Yoshida;H. Yashiro;H. Tomita
通讯作者：
H. Tomita