Anticipating organized and transnational crime
Anticipating organized and transnational crime
复制标题
预测有组织的跨国犯罪
DOI：
10.1023/a:1016095317864
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Godson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Williams;R. Godson
本文件旨在确定政府和执法机构可以提高其预防有组织犯罪工作的有效性的方法。它首先定义了什么是预期，并将其与更困难的预测任务区分开来。然后，分析确定了一些被普遍接受的方法和模式，作为关于有组织犯罪的现有知识库的一部分，并强调了如何利用这些方法和模式来预测未来的发展，并就犯罪组织今后可能如何演变和行为提出警告。知识库包括政治、经济、社会学、战略和复合模型，并显示它们为预测有组织犯罪的未来发展提供了基础。这些模型要么是关于有组织犯罪活动环境的模型，要么是关于有组织犯罪活动方式的模型。实际上，我们所做的是确定和阐明“模式”，以便就我们今后可能在有组织犯罪（国内和跨国）中看到的发展、创新或变化提出建议。基本指标为有组织犯罪的未来表现提供了预警。对这些表现的预测为适当的预防、防御或减轻战略提供了基础。最后，文章提供了一些具体的信息收集和情报分析技术的例子，可能有助于这项任务的预期。
This paper seeks to identify ways in which governments and lawenforcement agencies might enhance the effectiveness of their efforts toanticipate organized crime. It starts by defining what is meant byanticipation, and differentiating it from the much more difficult task ofprediction. The analysis then identifies some of the methods and modelsthat are generally accepted as part of the existing knowledge base onorganized crime and highlights how these can be used to anticipate futuredevelopments and to develop warnings about how criminal organizationsmight evolve and behave in the future. The knowledge base includespolitical, economic, sociological, strategic, and composite models and showshow they provide a foundation for anticipating future developments inorganized crime. The models are either models about the kind ofenvironment in which organized crime flourishes or models about the waysin which organized crime behaves. What we do, in effect, is to identifyand elucidate `models' in ways that provide propositions about the kindsof developments, innovations or changes we might see in organized crime(both domestic and transnational) in the future. Underlying indicators provide warning about future manifestations of organized crime. Anticipating these manifestations provides a basis for appropriatepreventive, defensive or mitigating strategies. Finally, the article providessome examples of specific techniques of information collection andintelligence analysis that might assist in this task of anticipation.