Economic aspects of global warming in a post-Copenhagen environment
Economic aspects of global warming in a post-Copenhagen environment
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1005985107
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发表时间：
2010-06-29
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Nordhaus, William D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nordhaus, William D.
全球变暖的科学已经就下个世纪大幅度变暖的可能性达成了共识。自1997年在京都达成第一份协议以来，各国只采取了有限的措施来减少温室气体排放，2009年12月的哥本哈根会议也没有取得什么进展。本研究考察了不同政策情景下排放、气候变化和损害的替代结果。它使用了更新版的区域气候和经济综合模型（RICE模型）。最近的预测表明，如果不实施减排政策，未来将出现大幅变暖。该模型还计算了碳价格的路径，以有效的方式将全球平均气温的上升保持在2摄氏度或更低。与这一目标相关的2010年碳价格估计为每吨59美元（按2005年价格计算），而今天的全球有效平均价格约为每吨5美元。然而，即使各国实现了《哥本哈根雅阁》规定的雄心勃勃的目标，也不太可能实现哥本哈根气温目标。
The science of global warming has reached a consensus on the high likelihood of substantial warming over the coming century. Nations have taken only limited steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions since the first agreement in Kyoto in 1997, and little progress was made at the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. The present study examines alternative outcomes for emissions, climate change, and damages under different policy scenarios. It uses an updated version of the regional integrated model of climate and the economy (RICE model). Recent projections suggest that substantial future warming will occur if no abatement policies are implemented. The model also calculates the path of carbon prices necessary to keep the increase in global mean temperature to 2 degrees C or less in an efficient manner. The carbon price for 2010 associated with that goal is estimated to be $59 per ton (at 2005 prices), compared with an effective global average price today of around $5 per ton. However, it is unlikely that the Copenhagen temperature goal will be attained even if countries meet their ambitious stated objectives under the Copenhagen Accord.