Estimated return periods for Hurricane Katrina
Estimated return periods for Hurricane Katrina
复制标题
卡特里娜飓风预计重现期
DOI：
10.1029/2005gl025452
复制
发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
A. Tsonis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Elsner;T. Jagger;A. Tsonis
卡特里娜飓风是美国历史上最具破坏性的自然灾害之一。严重沿海飓风的罕见性意味着对下一场大飓风的经验概率估计将是不可靠的。在这里，我们使用极值模型和插值最佳轨迹 (HURDAT) 记录来表明，预计从德克萨斯州到阿拉巴马州的墨西哥湾沿岸的某个地方平均每 21 年就会发生一次卡特里娜飓风强度或更强的飓风，从德克萨斯州到缅因州的整个海岸的某个地方每 14 年就会发生一次。该模型预测，全球温暖年份的 100 年回归水平为 83 ms−1（186 英里/小时），全球寒冷年份的 100 年回归水平为 75 ms−1（168 英里/小时）。这种差异与预测飓风强度随着温室变暖而增加的模型是一致的。
Hurricane Katrina is one of the most destructive natural disaster in U.S. history. The infrequency of severe coastal hurricanes implies that empirical probability estimates of the next big one will be unreliable. Here we use an extreme‐value model together with interpolated best‐track (HURDAT) records to show that a hurricane of Katrina's intensity or stronger can be expected to occur, on average, once every 21 years somewhere along the Gulf coast from Texas through Alabama and once every 14 years somewhere along the entire coast from Texas through Maine. The model predicts a 100‐year return level of 83 ms−1 (186 mph) during globally warm years and 75 ms−1 (168 mph) during globally cool years. This difference is consistent with models predicting an increase in hurricane intensity with increasing greenhouse warming.