Tropical cyclones over the western north Pacific since the mid-nineteenth century
Tropical cyclones over the western north Pacific since the mid-nineteenth century
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-021-02984-7
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发表时间：
2021-02-05
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Mollan, Mark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kubota, Hisayuki;Matsumoto, Jun;Mollan, Mark
通过收集世纪中期以来西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）的历史路径资料和气象观测资料，对西北太平洋TC活动和登陆日本的TC进行了研究。历史TC轨道数据和TC最佳轨道数据从1884年到2018年在WNP上合并。历史TC数据的质量是不足以计算的TC数量在WNP由于缺乏空间覆盖和不同的TC标准之前，20世纪50年代。我们使用1877年至2019年在气象站和灯塔观测到的TC轨道数据和气象数据相结合，重点关注TC在日本的登陆。应用统一的TC定义以在整个分析期间获得同等质量。我们发现在20世纪70年代至21世纪初，每年的TC登陆数量较低，其他时期有更多的TC登陆数量，包括世纪。TC登陆次数没有趋势。TC强度是由年功率耗散指数（APDI）估计的。APDI的高值期为1900年左右、1910年代、30年代至60年代和90年代以后。在1977 - 2019年期间，ADPI呈显著上升趋势，TC登陆位置显著向东北方向移动。另一方面，TC登陆位置在大约100年的时间间隔内先向东北方向移动，然后向西南方向移动。早在世纪末气象站网络建立之前，欧洲和美国的船只就已经在东亚和东南亚沃茨航行。然后，我们集中在1853年7月观察到的TC事件的美国海军日本远征队的佩里的舰队和1863年8月的英国海军舰艇，参加了两次战争在日本。1853年7月21日至25日，一个TC在冲绳以南的东海上空缓慢向西移动。另一个TC于1863年8月15日至16日在日本南部鹿儿岛炮击期间在东海发现。通过比较1863-1864年期间日本中部横滨10艘海军舰艇的观测资料，对压力数据进行了评价。各船气压资料与10船平均值的偏差约为2.7- 2.8hPa。
Tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) and TC landfall in Japan are investigated by collecting historical TC track data and meteorological observation data starting from the mid-nineteenth century. Historical TC track data and TC best track data are merged over the WNP from 1884 to 2018. The quality of historical TC data is not sufficient to count the TC numbers over the WNP due to the lack of spatial coverage and different TC criteria before the 1950s. We focus on TC landfall in Japan using a combination of TC track data and meteorological data observed at weather stations and lighthouses from 1877 to 2019. A unified TC definition is applied to obtain equivalent quality during the whole analysis period. We identify lower annual TC landfall numbers during the 1970s to the 2000s and find other periods have more TC landfall numbers including the nineteenth century. No trend in TC landfall number is detected. TC intensity is estimated by an annual power dissipation index (APDI). High APDI periods are found to be around 1900, in the 1910s, from the 1930s to 1960s, and after the 1990s. When we focus on the period from 1977 to 2019, a significant increasing trend of ADPI is seen, and significant northeastward shift of TC landfall location is detected. On the other hand, TC landfall location shifts northeastward and then southwestward in about 100-year interval. European and US ships sailed through East and Southeast Asian waters before the weather station network was established in the late nineteenth century. Then, we focus on TC events in July 1853 observed by the US Naval Japan Expedition of Perry's fleet and August 1863 by a UK Navy ship that participated in two wars in Japan. A TC moved slowly westward over the East China Sea south of the Okinawa Islands from 21 to 25 July 1853. Another TC was detected in the East China Sea on 15-16 August 1863 during the bombardment of Kagoshima in southern Japan. Pressure data are evaluated by comparing the observations made by 10 naval ships in Yokohama, central Japan during 1863-1864. The deviation of each ship pressure data from the 10 ships mean is about 2.7-2.8 hPa.