Low Fertility and the State: The Efficacy of Policy
Low Fertility and the State: The Efficacy of Policy
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2006.00134.x
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发表时间：
2006-09
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
P. McDonald
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. McDonald
目前，约有30个国家的生育率低于每名妇女1.5胎。这些国家的政府都向联合国报告说，他们认为这一比率“太低”（联合国，2004年）。当生育率略低于更替水平时，后代福尔斯的人数只会缓慢下降，如果认为有必要，就有机会通过移徙来补充后代人数。然而，当生育率仍然很低时，这一代人的人数福尔斯迅速减少，需要大规模移徙来抵消这种减少（联合国，2000年）。因此，我们可以从低生育率的“安全区”的角度来思考。人口动态往往证实了政府的观点，即“安全区”在每名妇女生育1.5个孩子以上。（节选）
Some 30 countries today have fertility rates below 1.5 births per woman. The governments of each of these countries have reported to the United Nations that they consider this rate to be "too low" (United Nations 2004). When fertility is moderately below replacement level the size of subsequent generations falls only slowly and if considered necessary there is an opportunity to supplement the generation size with migration. When fertility remains very low however the generation size falls rapidly and massive migration would be required to offset the decline (United Nations 2000). Hence we can think in terms of a "safety zone" for low fertility. Population dynamics tends to confirm the view of governments that the "safety zone" lies above 1.5 births per woman. (excerpt)