Possible hydrological effect of rainfall duration bias in dynamical downscaling
Possible hydrological effect of rainfall duration bias in dynamical downscaling
复制标题
动态降尺度中降雨持续时间偏差可能产生的水文效应
DOI：
10.1017/jog.2019.85
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
and T. Shirakawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Katsuyama;Y.;M. Inatsu;and T. Shirakawa
利用动态降尺度（DDS）数据驱动的物理积雪模式，估算了日本北海道地区积雪对全球变暖+2°C的响应。结果表明，积雪模型成功地再现了积雪高度（HS）、雪水当量（SWE）和积雪日数（SCDs），但在熔融形式（MF）和灰质类别（HC）厚度比上存在中等偏差。dds强迫模拟预测，北海道西南部和东部的季节最大值HS和SWE将因累积期降雪量的大量减少而减少30-40%，北部的HS和SWE将因不确定的大气强迫而减少，但幅度不大。北海道SCDs数预计将减少~30 d。此外，大部分地区一个季节积雪厚度的~50%将是MF，而北海道的HC将小于50%。
The response of snowpack to a +2°C global warming relative to the present climate was estimated in Hokkaido, Japan, using a physical snowpack model driven by dynamically downscaled (DDS) data, after model evaluation. The evaluation revealed that the snowpack model successfully reproduced the height of snow cover (HS), snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered days (SCDs), but had a moderate bias in the thickness ratios of melt form (MF) and hoar category (HC). The DDS-forced simulation predicted that the seasonal-maximum HS and SWE would decrease by 30–40% in the southwestern and eastern parts of Hokkaido due to a large decrease in snowfall during the accumulation period, and that the HS and SWE in the north would decrease, albeit not significantly due to uncertain atmospheric forcing. The number of SCDs in Hokkaido was predicted to decline by ~30 d. Additionally, ~50% of snowpack thickness during a season would be MF in most areas, whereas HC would be <50% all over Hokkaido.