Elementary Statistics on Trial—The Case of Lucia de Berk
Elementary Statistics on Trial—The Case of Lucia de Berk
复制标题
审判的基本统计——露西娅·德伯克案
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Peter de Jong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Gill;P. Groeneboom;Peter de Jong
在Lucia de Berk一案的判决中，法院咨询的专家使用的一个简单的超几何模型发挥了重要作用，该模型产生了一定数量事件发生的极小概率。我们想提请注意的事实是，如果我们考虑到护士在轮班期间经历的事件的差异，这些概率可能会变得相当大。这表明在这些情况下使用过于简化的离散概率模型是危险的。
In the conviction of Lucia de Berk an important role was played by a simple hypergeometric model, used by the expert consulted by the court, which produced very small probabilities of occurrences of certain numbers of incidents. We want to draw attention to the fact that, if we take into account the variation among nurses in incidents they experience during their shifts, these probabilities can become considerably larger. This points to the danger of using an oversimplified discrete probability model in these circumstances.