Modeling historical long-term trends of sulfate, ammonium, and elemental carbon over Europe: A comparison with ice core records in the Alps
Modeling historical long-term trends of sulfate, ammonium, and elemental carbon over Europe: A comparison with ice core records in the Alps
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DOI：
10.1029/2006jd008044
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发表时间：
2007-09-29
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Cerqueira, Mario
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fagerli, Hilde;Legrand, Michel;Cerqueira, Mario
区域 EMEP 化学品输送模型已在 1920-2003 年期间运行，模拟结果与从 Col du Dome（CDD，海拔 4250 m，法国阿尔卑斯山）提取的冰芯中产生的主要无机气溶胶（硫酸盐和铵）的长期季节性解析趋势进行了比较。为了分配到达阿尔卑斯山的空气污染源，已经进行了源-受体计算。西班牙、意大利、法国和德国是夏季CDD的主要贡献者，硫酸盐占50%，铵占75%。在冬季，会发现更多欧洲范围和跨大西洋的贡献。这些来源对整个阿尔卑斯山地块的相对影响仍然相似，尽管当我们从 CDD 向东移动到瑞士阿尔卑斯山的 Colle Gnifetti (CG) 等其他高山冰芯钻探地点时，来自美国的运输和来自西班牙的排放贡献较小。对于硫酸盐，CDD 冰芯记录和模拟趋势非常吻合。对于铵，模型模拟的趋势和夏季冰芯记录相当一致，两者都显示出铵浓度的变化比历史氨排放所表明的更大。由于过去大气浓度的模拟与无机气溶胶物种的冰芯记录之间存在如此良好的一致性，我们还使用该模型来模拟元素碳的趋势，其中有关过去排放清单的信息较少。
The regional EMEP chemical transport model has been run for the 1920-2003 period and the simulations compared to the long-term seasonally resolved trends of major inorganic aerosols ( sulfate and ammonium) derived from ice cores extracted at Col du Dome (CDD, 4250 m above sea level, French Alps). Source-receptor calculations have been performed in order to allocate the sources of air pollution arriving over the Alps. Spain, Italy, France, and Germany are found to be the main contributors at CDD in summer, accounting for 50% of sulfate and 75% of ammonium. In winter more European wide and trans-Atlantic contributions are found. The relative impact of these sources remains similar over the whole Alpine massif although transport from US and emissions from Spain contribute less as we move eastward from CDD, toward other alpine ice core drill sites like Colle Gnifetti (CG) in the Swiss Alps. For sulfate, the CDD ice core records and the simulated trends match very well. For ammonium, the trend simulated by the model and the summer ice core record are in reasonable agreement, both showing greater changes in ammonium concentrations than would be suggested by historical ammonia emissions. Motivated by a such good agreement between simulations of past atmospheric concentrations and ice core records for inorganic aerosol species, we also use the model to simulate trends in elemental carbon for which less information on past emission inventories are available.