Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity for Sustainable Development Based on a System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Tieling City, China
Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity for Sustainable Development Based on a System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Tieling City, China
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DOI：
10.1007/s11269-014-0849-y
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发表时间：
2015-02
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Junfeng Yang;K. Lei;S. Khu;W. Meng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Junfeng Yang;K. Lei;S. Khu;W. Meng
水资源承载力的研究可以为社会经济系统如何受到水资源系统的支持和约束提供有益的信息。因此，有必要制定更好的定量评估方法，以确定在给定水资源量的集水区内潜在的最大社会经济增长。提出了一种改进的基于系统动力学模型的水资源承载力评价方法。水资源可持续发展模型是建立在社会-经济-水复合系统耦合效应和反馈机制综合模拟的基础上。该模型能够完整地反映系统的行为和状态，实现了水资源承载力的评价。提出了一个综合指标（人口-GDP-人均GDP）来表示水资源承载力的阈值。基于水资源的自然供给能力和社会经济发展潜力，提出了临界水资源承载力和极端水资源承载力的概念。临界水资源承载力是指总需水量达到最大自然水资源供给能力时的社会经济规模，极端水资源承载力是指在有限水资源约束下GDP增长率为零时的社会经济规模。应用该方法评估了不同情景下中国铁岭市的水资源状况。结果表明：（1）由于水资源的限制，预计的国内生产总值增长往往遵循S曲线增长模式;（2）人口的快速增长可能导致更早和更严重的水资源限制。
Studies of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) can provide helpful information about how the socio-economic system is both supported and restrained by the water resources system. As such, there is a need to develop better quantitative assessment methods to determine the potential maximum socio-economic growth within a catchment subjected to a given amount of water resource. An improved WRCC assessment method based on a system dynamics model (WRCC-SDM) is proposed in this paper. WRCC-SDM is built on synthesis simulations of coupling effects and feedback mechanisms within the society-economy-water compound system. The results can integrally represent system behaviors and states, and the evaluation of WRCC is achieved using this model. Moreover, an integrated indicator (Population-GDP-GDP per capita) is proposed to express the threshold value of WRCC. Based on the natural water resources supply capacity and associated socio-economic development potential, the concepts of critical WRCC and extreme WRCC are put forward. Critical WRCC represents the socio-economic scale that will cause total water demand to reach the maximum natural water resources supply capacity, while extreme WRCC reflects the socio-economic scale when the GDP growth rate constrained by limited water resources is zero. The methodology was applied to assess the water resources situation in Tieling City, China under different scenarios. The results indicate that: (1) Given the constraints represented by water resources, projected GDP growth tends to follow an S-curve growth pattern; and (2) Rapid population growth may lead to earlier and more severe water resources constraints.