Mapping the global distribution of livestock.
Mapping the global distribution of livestock.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0096084
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Gilbert M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Robinson TP;Wint GR;Conchedda G;Van Boeckel TP;Ercoli V;Palamara E;Cinardi G;D'Aietti L;Hay SI;Gilbert M
畜牧业直接为近10亿人的生计和粮食安全作出贡献，并影响更多人的饮食和健康。据估计，常住人口为14.3亿头牛、18.7亿头绵羊和山羊、9.8亿头猪和196亿只鸡，由于许多原因，需要有关牲畜分布和丰富程度的可靠和可获得的信息。其中包括对畜牧业的社会和经济方面的分析；牲畜对环境的影响，如废物的生产和管理、温室气体排放以及与牲畜有关的土地利用变化；以及大规模的公共卫生和流行病学调查。2007年建立的世界牲畜网格数据库（GLW）提供了模拟的世界牲畜密度，并进行了调整，以符合2005年参考年的官方（粮农组织统计数据库）国家估计值，空间分辨率为3弧分（赤道处约5×5公里）。最近方法上的改进大大加强了这些分布：收集了更多最新和详细的地方牲畜统计数据；使用了一组新的、分辨率更高的预测变量；分析程序已被修订和扩展，以包括对模型精度的更系统的评估和与预测相关的不确定性的表示。本文详细介绍了目前的方法，并给出了牛、猪和鸡在1公里分辨率下的新的全球分布图，以及鸭的部分分布图。这些数字层将通过家畜地理维基（http://www.livestock.geo-wiki.org）公开，其他家畜类型的地图也将在制作完成后公开。
Livestock contributes directly to the livelihoods and food security of almost a billion people and affects the diet and health of many more. With estimated standing populations of 1.43 billion cattle, 1.87 billion sheep and goats, 0.98 billion pigs, and 19.60 billion chickens, reliable and accessible information on the distribution and abundance of livestock is needed for a many reasons. These include analyses of the social and economic aspects of the livestock sector; the environmental impacts of livestock such as the production and management of waste, greenhouse gas emissions and livestock-related land-use change; and large-scale public health and epidemiological investigations. The Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, produced in 2007, provided modelled livestock densities of the world, adjusted to match official (FAOSTAT) national estimates for the reference year 2005, at a spatial resolution of 3 minutes of arc (about 5×5 km at the equator). Recent methodological improvements have significantly enhanced these distributions: more up-to date and detailed sub-national livestock statistics have been collected; a new, higher resolution set of predictor variables is used; and the analytical procedure has been revised and extended to include a more systematic assessment of model accuracy and the representation of uncertainties associated with the predictions. This paper describes the current approach in detail and presents new global distribution maps at 1 km resolution for cattle, pigs and chickens, and a partial distribution map for ducks. These digital layers are made publically available via the Livestock Geo-Wiki (http://www.livestock.geo-wiki.org), as will be the maps of other livestock types as they are produced.