Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties
Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15649
复制
发表时间：
2021-05
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
F. Zabel;C. Müller;J. Elliott;S. Minoli;J. Jägermeyr;J. Schneider;J. Franke;Elisabeth Moyer;Marie Dury;L. François;C. Folberth;Wenfeng Liu;T. Pugh;S. Olin;Sam S. Rabin;W. Mauser;T. Hank;A. Ruane;S. Asseng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Zabel;C. Müller;J. Elliott;S. Minoli;J. Jägermeyr;J. Schneider;J. Franke;Elisabeth Moyer;Marie Dury;L. François;C. Folberth;Wenfeng Liu;T. Pugh;S. Olin;Sam S. Rabin;W. Mauser;T. Hank;A. Ruane;S. Asseng
气候变化影响全球农业生产，威胁粮食安全。气候变暖导致的作物物候发育加快是未来潜在减产的主要驱动因素之一。为了抵消更快成熟的影响，适应品种将需要更多的热量单位来恢复以前的生长期长度。在这项研究中，我们研究了玉米、水稻、大豆和小麦在四种不同的未来气候变化情景下品种适应对全球热量生产的影响。因此，我们经验性地确定了可能需要新品种的领域，以及通过将现有品种转移到新地区来实现品种适应的领域。该研究使用了七个全球网格作物模型和五个CMIP 6气候模型的集合。我们发现，到世纪末，全球39%（SSP 5 - 8.5）的农田可能需要新的作物品种，以避免气候变化造成的产量损失。在低变暖水平（SSP 1 - 2.6）下，目前85%的耕地可以利用现有品种在农业生态区内转移以适应。对适应可用品种的假设对品种适应的有效性有重要影响，在SSP 5 - 8.5中可能超过一半。研究结果强调，需要针对特定地区的育种工作，以成功适应气候变化。
Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5‐8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1‐2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro‐ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5‐8.5. The results highlight that region‐specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.