The winter choke: Coal-Fired heating, air pollution, and mortality in China
The winter choke: Coal-Fired heating, air pollution, and mortality in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102316
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Zhou, Maigeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fan, Maoyong;He, Guojun;Zhou, Maigeng
中国的冬季燃煤供暖系统会产生大量有害排放，严重恶化空气质量。利用基于不同城市冬季采暖开始日期的回归间断设计，我们估计了冬季采暖对空气污染和健康的同时影响。我们发现，打开冬季供暖系统会使每周的空气质量指数增加36%，并导致死亡率增加14%。这意味着每周空气质量指数每增加10个百分点，总死亡率就会增加2.2%。贫穷和农村地区的人们尤其受到空气质量迅速恶化的影响；这意味着空气污染对健康的影响可以通过改善社会经济条件来减轻。探索性的成本效益分析表明，用天然气替代煤炭供暖可以提高社会福利。(C)2020爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
China's coal-fired winter heating systems generate large amounts of hazardous emissions that significantly deteriorate air quality. Exploiting regression discontinuity designs based on the exact starting dates of winter heating across different cities, we estimate the contemporaneous impact of winter heating on air pollution and health. We find that turning on the winter heating system increased the weekly Air Quality Index by 36% and caused 14% increase in mortality rate. This implies that a 10-point increase in the weekly Air Quality Index causes a 2.2% increase in overall mortality. People in poor and rural areas are particularly affected by the rapid deterioration in air quality; this implies that the health impact of air pollution may be mitigated by improved socio-economic conditions. Exploratory cost-benefit analysis suggests that replacing coal with natural gas for heating can improve social welfare. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.