When IPCC graphs can foster or bias understanding: evidence among decision-makers from governmental and non-governmental institutions
When IPCC graphs can foster or bias understanding: evidence among decision-makers from governmental and non-governmental institutions
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/abbc3c
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发表时间：
2020-11-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Okan, Yasmina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fischer, Helen;van den Broek, Karlijn L.;Okan, Yasmina
为了制定有效的气候变化政策，决策者需要对现有的气候科学有尽可能好的了解。因此，气专委评估报告旨在通过提供与政策相关的信息，为知情的政治决策奠定基础。但IPCC报告在传达关键发现方面有多成功？虽然气专委的报告以图表显示了关键信息，但对这些图表的解释却很少受到注意。在这里，我们提供了一个IPCC的目标受众（N = 110），来自54个国家的气候相关（非）政府组织的（政治）决策者，和德国初级外交官，代表未来的国际决策者（N = 33）的比较样本IPCC图形理解的实证评估。我们使用两个IPCC图表评估当前气候变化风险可视化的理解，一个采用直观设计原则，另一个违反直观设计原则。结果表明，（i）虽然少数IPCC目标受众误解了直观的图表，（ii）大多数参与者系统地误解了反直观的图表，得出了与图表所传达的相反的结论，尽管（iii）对他们解释的准确性有很高的信心。由于对IPCC图表的误解不允许最佳利用科学信息进行决策，因此结果强调了遵循直观设计原则的IPCC图表的重要性。
To develop effective climate change policy, decision-makers need to have the best possible understanding of the available climate science. The IPCC Assessment Reports therefore aim to lay the foundation for informed political decision-making by providing policy-relevant information. But how successful are IPCC reports at communicating key findings? Although IPCC reports display key information in graphs, the interpretation of such graphs has received little attention. Here we provide an empirical evaluation of IPCC graph comprehension among IPCC target audience (N = 110), (political) decision-makers from climate-related (non-)governmental organizations from 54 countries, and a comparative sample of German junior diplomats, representing future international decision-makers (N = 33). We assess comprehension of current climate change risk visualizations using two IPCC graphs, one that employs principles of intuitive design, and one that violates principles of intuitive design. Results showed that (i) while a minority of IPCC target audience misinterpreted the intuitive graph, (ii) the majority of participants systematically misinterpreted the counter-intuitive graph, drawing the opposite conclusion from what was meant to be conveyed by the graph, despite (iii) having high confidence in the accuracy of their interpretation. Since misinterpretation of IPCC graphs does not allow for optimal use of the scientific information for policy-making, the results emphasize the importance of IPCC graphs that follow the principles of intuitive design.