急激な気候変動シナリオと合衆国国家安全保障への含意 : ペンダゴン・レポート = An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for United States national security
急激な気候変動シナリオと合衆国国家安全保障への含意 : ペンダゴン・レポート = An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for United States national security
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突然的气候变化情景及其对美国国家安全的影响：Pendagon 报告
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
鳥取環境大学地球環境問題研究会
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Peter Schwartz;D. J. Randall;鳥取環境大学地球環境問題研究会
摘要：本报告的目的是想象如何突破当前气候变化研究的界限，以便我们更好地理解其对美国国家安全的潜在影响。我们采访了领先的气候变化科学家，进行了额外的研究，并与这些专家一起审查了情景的多次迭代。科学家们支持这个项目，但警告说，所描述的场景在两个基本方面是极端的。首先，他们认为我们概述的事件很可能发生在少数地区，而不是全球范围内。其次，他们表示该事件的规模可能要小得多。我们创造了一种气候变化情景，尽管可能性不大，但却是合理的，并将以应立即考虑的方式挑战美国的国家安全。
Abstract : The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security. We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than on globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller. We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately.