Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America
Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America
复制标题
估计南美洲和中美洲寨卡疫情的繁殖数量、总疫情规模和报告率
DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2017.06.005
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Del Valle, Sara Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shutt, Deborah P.;Manore, Carrie A.;Pankavich, Stephen;Porter, Aaron T.;Del Valle, Sara Y.
随着南美洲和中美洲国家准备应对寨卡病毒爆发导致的出生缺陷增加，并计划采取缓解战略，将目前和未来的疫情降至最低，了解寨卡病毒爆发的重要特征以及它们在不同地区的差异是一个具有挑战性的重要问题。我们为2015/2016年寨卡病毒在哥伦比亚、萨尔瓦多和苏里南的爆发动态建立了一个数学模型。我们将模型与泛美卫生组织提供的公开数据相匹配，使用近似贝叶斯计算来估计参数分布并提供不确定性量化。该模式表明，国家一级的分析不适合哥伦比亚。然后，我们估计萨尔瓦多和苏里南的基本繁殖次数在4到6之间，中位数分别为4.3和5.3。我们估计萨尔瓦多的报告率约为16%，苏里南约为18%，估计总暴发规模分别为73,395人和21,647人。参数估计的不确定性突出表明，需要进行研究和数据收集，以便更好地限制参数范围。
As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.