A new view on the risk of typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific
A new view on the risk of typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific
复制标题
西北太平洋台风发生风险的新认识
DOI：
10.5194/nhess-21-663-2021
复制
发表时间：
2021-02
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
K. Ng;G. Leckebusch
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Ng;G. Leckebusch
抽象。高影响热带气旋（TC）具有巨大的破坏潜力，在西北太平洋（WNP）许多沿海地区造成重大损失，因此研究TC具有重要意义。然而，由于影响力大的技术合作很少，很难根据历史上最好的跟踪记录进行可靠的风险评估。本文旨在解决这个问题，通过引入一个计算简单和有效的方法，使用数据从THORPEX互动全球大Ensemination（TIGGE）档案与影响导向的跟踪算法的应用程序，建立一个物理上一致的高影响台风事件集与未实现的TC事件-数据相当于超过10 000年的TC事件。新事件集的时空特征与西北太平洋历史TC气候特征一致。结果表明，该TC事件集包含的特强台风和强台风分别是历史记录的100倍和77倍。此外，这种方法可以用来改善重现期的估计TC相关的极端风。因此，可以使用这种方法进行可靠的极端TC危害风险评估，反映当前的长期气候变率阶段。
Abstract. To study high impact tropical cyclone (TC) is of crucial importance due to its extraordinary destruction potential that leads to major losses in many coastal areas in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Nevertheless, because of the rarity of high-impact TCs, it is difficult to construct a robust risk assessment based on the historical best track records. This paper aims to address this issue by introducing a computationally simple and efficient approach, using data from the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive with the application of impact-oriented tracking algorithm, to build a physically consistent high impact typhoon event set with non-realised TC events – data equivalent to more than 10 000 years of TC events. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the new event set is consistent to the historical TC climatology in the WNP. It is shown that this TC event set contains ~ 100 and ~ 77 times more Very Severe Typhoons and Violent Typhoons than the historical records, respectively. Furthermore, this approach can be used to improve the return period estimation of TC-associated extreme wind. Consequently, a robust extreme TC hazard risk assessment, reflective of the current long-term climate variability phase, can be achieved using this approach.