Explaining the Trend in Extreme Right‐Wing Voting: Germany 1989–1998
Explaining the Trend in Extreme Right‐Wing Voting: Germany 1989–1998
复制标题
解释极右翼投票的趋势：1989-1998 年的德国
DOI：
10.1093/esr/17.4.431
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发表时间：
2001
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
P. Scheepers
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Lubbers;P. Scheepers
1990年代，德国极右翼政党的支持率波动很大，1992年9月达到最高水平，为8.7%。各区域对这些缔约方的支持也各不相同。在本文中，我们试图解释这种变化随着时间和地区使用个人和上下文的特点。在个人和背景层面制定的假设进行了测试，通过多层次的逻辑回归，使用1989-1998年期间进行的每月调查（N= 114，798）。结果表明，在寻求庇护者人数较多的时期，极右翼的受欢迎程度更高，而失业率并没有增加对这些政党的支持。在个人层面，我们发现失业者、体力劳动者、个体经营者和年轻人，以及受教育程度较低和无宗教信仰的人，更有可能支持极右翼政党。
Support for German extreme right-wing parties fluctuated strongly in the 1990s, reaching its highest level of 8.7 per cent in September 1992. Support for these parties also varied between regions. In this paper, we attempt to explain this variation over time and region using individual and contextual characteristics. Hypotheses formulated at the individual and contextual levels were tested by means of multi-level logistic regression, using monthly surveys conducted over the period 1989–1998 (N=114,798). The results show that extreme right-wing popularity is greater in periods when the number of asylum seekers is high, whereas the unemployment level does not increase support for these parties. At the individual level, we found that unemployed people, manual workers, self-employed people, and young people, as well as the lower educated and non-religious, were more likely to support extreme right-wing parties.