How al-Qaida ends - The decline and demise of terrorist groups
How al-Qaida ends - The decline and demise of terrorist groups
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DOI：
10.1162/isec.2006.31.1.7
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发表时间：
2006-06-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Cronin, Audrey Kurth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cronin, Audrey Kurth
基地组织将被消灭。有人担心，一个网络松散的小型恐怖组织已经演变成一场旷日持久、看不到尽头的全球意识形态斗争，这种担心是错误的。现代恐怖主义运动有几个世纪的经验，其中许多与基地组织有重要的相似之处；然而，从这些团体的消亡中得到的教训却很少被研究。不幸的是，处于最后阶段的恐怖组织往往是最危险的。其结果可能从一个群体的内部崩溃及其原因，到过渡到令人震惊的暴力行为和国家间的战争。将基地组织与早期恐怖组织的异同进行比较，并将相关经验教训应用于本案，可以为基地组织可能的灭亡提供洞见。它还可以为如何管理和加速基地组织的终结提供思路。
Al-Qaida will end. The fear that a small terrorist organization with a loose network has transformed itself into a protracted global ideological struggle without an end in sight is misguided. There are centuries of experience with modern terrorist movements, many bearing important parallels with al-Qaida; yet the lessons arising from the demise of these groups are little studied. Unfortunately, terrorist organizations in their final stages are often at their most dangerous. The outcomes can range from implosion of a group and its cause to transition to astonishing acts of violence and interstate war. Comparing al-Qaida's differences and similarities with those of earlier terrorist organizations, and applying relevant lessons to this case, can provide insights into al-Qaida's likely demise. It can also inform thinking about how to manage and hasten al-Qaida's end.