Success from satisficing and imitation: Entrepreneurs' location choice and implications of heuristics for local economic development
Success from satisficing and imitation: Entrepreneurs' location choice and implications of heuristics for local economic development
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jbusres.2014.02.016
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发表时间：
2014-08-01
影响因子：
11.3
通讯作者：
Berg, Nathan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Berg, Nathan
本文提出了新的数据，企业家的自我描述的决策过程时，选择在哪里定位，根据脚本采访企业主。考虑集和信息获取的数量是令人惊讶的小，特别是在那些成功地达到或超过自己预期回报率的企业家中。地点经常是偶然发现的。很少有企业家描述决策过程比较边际收益和边际成本的持续搜索。企业家对在不断变化的环境中将概率信念应用于一次性高风险选择的效用表示怀疑。几乎所有的受访者描述的决策过程的基础上的阈值条件，不更新沿着搜索路径，并不依赖于可行的位置，这可以被解释为满足的直接证据的数量。模仿对小型投资项目有利。企业家的小考虑集和令人满意的决策过程，应重新考虑寻求在企业区内以税收优惠刺激地方经济发展的政策。对自我报告成功的词典决策树分析（以低于、达到或超过预期年回报率为标准）在拟合和样本外预测准确性方面远远优于最大似然模型。数据揭示了一种“少即是多”的效应，通过这种效应，决策程序更简单的企业家（即，需要更少的信息）和更小的考虑集享有更高的超出期望的机会。(C)2014爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
This paper presents new data on entrepreneurs' self-described decision processes when choosing where to locate, based on scripted interviews with business owners. Consideration sets and quantities of information acquisition are surprisingly small, especially among entrepreneurs who are successful at meeting or exceeding their own expected rates of return. Locations are frequently discovered by chance. Few entrepreneurs describe decision processes comparing the marginal benefits and marginal costs of continuing search. Entrepreneurs express skepticism about the utility of applying probabilistic beliefs to one-off high-stakes choices in their changing environments. Nearly all interviewees describe decision-making processes based on threshold conditions that are not updated along the search path and do not depend on the number of feasible locations, which can be interpreted as direct evidence of satisficing. Imitation is beneficial for small investment projects. Policies seeking to stimulate local economic development with tax incentives within enterprise zones should be rethought in light of entrepreneurs' small consideration sets and satisficing decision process. A lexicographic decision-tree analysis of self-reported success (by the standard of falling below, meeting, or exceeding one's expected annual rate of return) far outperforms maximum-likelihood models in terms of fit and out-of-sample predictive accuracy. The data reveal a less-is-more effect by which entrepreneurs with simpler decision procedures (i.e., requiring less information) and smaller consideration sets enjoy far higher chances of exceeding expectations. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.