Understanding the evolution of the 2014-2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa: Key lessons
Understanding the evolution of the 2014-2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa: Key lessons
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DOI：
10.1016/j.crm.2017.03.006
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Marumbwa, Farai Maxwell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Archer, Emma Rosa Mary;Landman, Willem Adolf;Marumbwa, Farai Maxwell
南部非洲发展共同体 (SADC) 陆地地区最近 2015/16 夏季降雨季节似乎是自 20 世纪 80 年代初和 1990 年代干旱以来最严重的一年；对农业和粮食安全具有众所周知的重大影响。继2014/15年雨季歉收之后，2015/6年度的影响尤其令人担忧，某些地区的产量已经受到影响（例如，玉米总产量比前5年平均产量下降了40%）。本文回顾了两个季节的气候预测和观测结果，并举例说明了由此对该地区农业造成的影响。最后，我们考虑了可以从这一经验中学到什么，重点关注南部非洲发展共同体内部预警的操作建议，以及提高认识和能力建设的长期需求。 (C) 2017 年作者。由 Elsevier B.V 出版。这是一篇遵循 CC BY-NC-ND 许可的开放获取文章
The recent 2015/16 summer rainfall season in the terrestrial Southern African Development Community (SADC) region appears to be the most severe since the droughts of the early 1980s and 1990s; with well-publicized significant impacts on agriculture and food security. Impacts have been particularly concerning since the 2015/6 season followed a poor rainy season in 2014/15, in certain areas compounding already compromised production (total maize production was, for example, down 40% relative to the previous 5 year average). This paper reviews climate forecasts and observations of the two seasons, and presents examples of the resulting impacts on agriculture within the region. We conclude by considering what may be learnt from this experience, focussing on operational recommendations for early warning within SADC, as well as longstanding needs for awareness raising and capacity building. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license