Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Sand Fly Fluctuations Are Associated with El Nino in Panama
Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Sand Fly Fluctuations Are Associated with El Nino in Panama
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0003210
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发表时间：
2014-10-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Saldana, Azael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fernando Chaves, Luis;Calzada, Jose E.;Saldana, Azael
背景：皮肤利什曼病(CL)是一种被忽视的热带媒介传播疾病。沙蝇病媒(SF)和利什曼原虫寄生虫对天气条件的变化很敏感，使疾病传播容易受到当地和全球尺度气候模式变化的影响。然而，尚不清楚厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)对SF丰度的影响，以及这些变化如何与CL传输的变化有关。方法和结果：我们研究了2000年1月至2010年12月CL病例、巴拿马降雨量和温度以及ENSO指数的月度时间序列之间的关联模式。我们使用自回归模型和交叉小波相干性，量化了当地气候和ENSO对CL动态的季节和年际影响。我们使用泊松率广义线性混合模型研究了跨ENSO阶段、季节和生态流行病学环境的SF丰度模式，使用了2000-2011年间640个夜间诱捕器采样的记录。研究发现，ENSO、降水和温度与CL循环的年际尺度相关，而季节变化主要与降水和温度有关。平均而言，与正常的ENSO阶段相比，在ENSO冷热阶段，沙蝇(SF)的载体丰度降低，但在冷ENSO阶段，SF载体丰度的变异性最大。结论：CL与ENSO和巴拿马局地气候因子的关联模式表明，年际CL循环可能是由ENSO驱动的，而CL的季节性主要与温度和降水变化有关。CL病例和SF丰度之间存在关联，这表明媒介丰度的突然异常变化可能会增加CL疫情暴发的可能性，因为CL流行发生在寒冷的ENSO阶段，而SF丰度的波动最大。
Background: Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it is unclear how SF abundance is impacted by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how these changes might relate to changes in CL transmission.Methodology and Findings: We studied association patterns between monthly time series, from January 2000 to December 2010, of: CL cases, rainfall and temperature from Panama, and an ENSO index. We employed autoregressive models and cross wavelet coherence, to quantify the seasonal and interannual impact of local climate and ENSO on CL dynamics. We employed Poisson Rate Generalized Linear Mixed Models to study SF abundance patterns across ENSO phases, seasons and eco-epidemiological settings, employing records from 640 night-trap sampling collections spanning 2000-2011. We found that ENSO, rainfall and temperature were associated with CL cycles at interannual scales, while seasonal patterns were mainly associated with rainfall and temperature. Sand fly (SF) vector abundance, on average, decreased during the hot and cold ENSO phases, when compared with the normal ENSO phase, yet variability in vector abundance was largest during the cold ENSO phase. Our results showed a three month lagged association between SF vector abundance and CL cases.Conclusion: Association patterns of CL with ENSO and local climatic factors in Panama indicate that interannual CL cycles might be driven by ENSO, while the CL seasonality was mainly associated with temperature and rainfall variability. CL cases and SF abundance were associated in a fashion suggesting that sudden extraordinary changes in vector abundance might increase the potential for CL epidemic outbreaks, given that CL epidemics occur during the cold ENSO phase, a time when SF abundance shows its highest fluctuations.