The Effect of Organizational Complexity on Earnings Forecasting Behavior
The Effect of Organizational Complexity on Earnings Forecasting Behavior
复制标题
组织复杂性对盈利预测行为的影响
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2130119
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lloyd Tanlu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jared N. Jennings;Hojun Seo;Lloyd Tanlu
本文考察了组织复杂性是否会影响管理层与外部市场参与者的沟通。我们特别研究了组织复杂性的三个方面——业务、地理和成本结构复杂性。我们发现与地理复杂性相一致的证据降低了管理层与外部市场参与者沟通的数量和质量。具体来说，我们发现管理层不太可能修改其初始预测，而更有可能将其盈利预测与盈利公告捆绑在一起。我们还发现，当地理复杂性增加时，管理层发布的收益预测更悲观、更不精确、更不准确。成本结构的复杂性也降低了管理层与外部市场参与者沟通的数量和质量。我们的研究结果表明，成本结构的复杂性增加了管理层捆绑盈利预测和发布更悲观的盈利预测的可能性。本文通过进一步研究企业的结构组织如何影响管理者在向外部市场参与者传达财务信息时所面临的成本和收益，从而补充了会计和管理文献。我们还解释了为什么管理者会错过自己的预测，以及为什么管理者会发布悲观的预测。
This paper examines whether organizational complexity affects management’s communication with external market participants. We specifically examine three aspects of organizational complexity – business, geographical, and cost structure complexity. We find evidence consistent with geographical complexity reducing the quantity and quality of management’s communication with external market participants. Specifically, we find that management is less likely to revise its initial forecasts and more likely to bundle its earnings forecasts with earnings announcements. We also find that management issues more pessimistic, less precise, and less accurate earnings forecasts when geographical complexity increases. Cost structure complexity also appears to reduce the quantity and quality of management’s communication with external market participants. Our results suggest that cost structure complexity increases the likelihood of management bundling earnings forecasts and issuing more pessimistic earnings forecasts. This paper adds to the accounting and management literature by further examining how the structural organization of the firm affects the costs and benefits managers face when communicating financial information to external market participants. We also provide an explanation for why managers miss their own forecasts as well as why managers issue pessimistic forecasts.
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
Robert A. Simons
通讯作者：
Robert A. Simons