Observed and global climate model based changes in wind power potential over the Northern Hemisphere during 1979-2016
Observed and global climate model based changes in wind power potential over the Northern Hemisphere during 1979-2016
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1979-2016 年期间北半球风力发电潜力的观测和基于全球气候模型的变化
DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2018.11.027
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Niyogi Dev
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tian Qun;Huang Gang;Hu Kaiming;Niyogi Dev
利用观测数据集，我们研究了1979 - 2016年北方半球地面风速的变化及其对风能潜力的影响。结果表明，近40年来，包括北美、欧洲和亚洲在内的北方大部分地区的地面风速呈下降趋势。在地面风速下降的同时，在过去几十年中，北方大多数地区商用风力涡轮机典型高度的风力潜力也在下降。自1979年以来，北美、欧洲和亚洲分别约有30%、50%和80%的电站损失了超过30%的风力发电潜力。此外，对气候模型的评价表明，它们模拟地面风的长期时间趋势的能力相对较差，这表明需要加强这一进程，以提高风能评估气候模型的可靠性。
Using an observed dataset, we study the changes of surface wind speeds from 1979 to 2016 over the Northern Hemisphere and their impacts on wind power potential. The results show that surface wind speeds were decreasing in the past four decades over most regions in the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Europe and Asia. In conjunction with decreasing surface wind speeds, the wind power potential at the typical height of a commercial wind turbine was also declining over the past decades for most regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Approximately 30%, 50% and 80% of the stations lost over 30% of the wind power potential since 1979 in North America, Europe and Asia, respectively. In addition, the evaluation of climate models shows their relatively poor ability to simulate long-term temporal trends of surface winds, indicating the need for enhancing the process that can improve the reliability of climate models for wind energy assessments.