THE CARE SPAN An Aging Population And Growing Disease Burden Will Require A Large And Specialized Health Care Workforce By 2025
THE CARE SPAN An Aging Population And Growing Disease Burden Will Require A Large And Specialized Health Care Workforce By 2025
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DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.2013.0714
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发表时间：
2013-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Storm, Michael V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dall, Timothy M.;Gallo, Paul D.;Storm, Michael V.
随着美国人口老龄化，慢性病和复杂医疗状况的日益流行将对未来的医疗保健系统产生深远的影响。我们预测了选定疾病的未来患病率和健康风险因素，以模拟当前和预测的未来人口的代表性样本中每个人对医疗保健服务的未来需求。根据不断变化的人口特征和《平价医疗法案》（Affordable Care Act）下扩大的医疗覆盖范围，我们预计，在2013年至2025年间，对成人初级保健服务的需求将增长约14%。预计需求增长最高的是血管外科（31%），其次是心脏病（20%）、神经外科、放射学和普通外科（各18%）。诸如长时间等待预约等市场指标表明，目前美国各地的许多专家的供应不足以满足当前的需求。如果不能培训足够的数量和正确的专家组合，可能会加剧已经很长的预约等待时间，减少美国一些最脆弱患者获得护理的机会，并降低患者的生活质量。
As the US population ages, the increasing prevalence of chronic disease and complex medical conditions will have profound implications for the future health care system. We projected future prevalence of selected diseases and health risk factors to model future demand for health care services for each person in a representative sample of the current and projected future population. Based on changing demographic characteristics and expanded medical coverage under the Affordable Care Act, we project that the demand for adult primary care services will grow by approximately 14 percent between 2013 and 2025. Vascular surgery has the highest projected demand growth (31 percent), followed by cardiology (20 percent) and neurological surgery, radiology, and general surgery (each 18 percent). Market indicators such as long wait times to obtain appointments suggest that the current supply of many specialists throughout the United States is inadequate to meet the current demand. Failure to train sufficient numbers and the correct mix of specialists could exacerbate already long wait times for appointments, reduce access to care for some of the nation's most vulnerable patients, and reduce patients' quality of life.