Fine-scale damage estimates of particulate matter air pollution reveal opportunities for location-specific mitigation of emissions
Fine-scale damage estimates of particulate matter air pollution reveal opportunities for location-specific mitigation of emissions
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1816102116
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发表时间：
2019-04-30
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Marshall, Julian D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goodkind, Andrew L.;Tessum, Christopher W.;Marshall, Julian D.
细颗粒物（PM2.5）空气污染在美国被认为是造成死亡的主要原因，至少已有25年的历史，但人们对哪些来源最有害仍知之甚少，更不用说如何最好地制定政策来减轻它们了。通过采用高分辨率的地理上明确的方法来量化PM2.5及其前体排放对人类健康的影响，可以改善这种努力。在这里，我们通过将排放源与由此产生的污染浓度联系起来，详细研究了PM2.5污染在美国对健康和经济的影响。我们估计，2011年，人为PM2.5造成了10.7万人过早死亡，给社会造成了8860亿美元的损失。在这些死亡中，57%与能源消耗造成的污染有关[例如，运输（28%）和发电（14%）]；另有15%是由农业活动造成的污染。集中在人口稠密地区或附近的一小部分排放在损害人类健康方面发挥着巨大的作用，占总排放量的10%，危害最大，占总损害的40%。我们发现33%的损害发生在排放源8公里以内，但25%发生在256公里以外，强调了跟踪本地和远程影响的重要性。我们的论文强调了精细尺度方法的重要性，因为在单个县内，边际损害可能会变化超过一个数量级。这里提供的信息可以通过确定对健康影响最大的来源来协助缓解工作。
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution has been recognized as a major source of mortality in the United States for at least 25 years, yet much remains unknown about which sources are the most harmful, let alone how best to target policies to mitigate them. Such efforts can be improved by employing high-resolution geographically explicit methods for quantifying human health impacts of emissions of PM2.5 and its precursors. Here, we provide a detailed examination of the health and economic impacts of PM2.5 pollution in the United States by linking emission sources with resulting pollution concentrations. We estimate that anthropogenic PM2.5 was responsible for 107,000 premature deaths in 2011, at a cost to society of $886 billion. Of these deaths, 57% were associated with pollution caused by energy consumption [e.g., transportation (28%) and electricity generation (14%)]; another 15% with pollution caused by agricultural activities. A small fraction of emissions, concentrated in or near densely populated areas, plays an outsized role in damaging human health with the most damaging 10% of total emissions accounting for 40% of total damages. We find that 33% of damages occur within 8 km of emission sources, but 25% occur more than 256 km away, emphasizing the importance of tracking both local and long-range impacts. Our paper highlights the importance of a fine-scale approach as marginal damages can vary by over an order of magnitude within a single county. Information presented here can assist mitigation efforts by identifying those sources with the greatest health effects.