Replicated alternatives and the role of confusion, chasing, and regret in decisions from experience
Replicated alternatives and the role of confusion, chasing, and regret in decisions from experience
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DOI：
10.1002/bdm.556
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发表时间：
2007-07-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Erev, Ido
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ert, Eyal;Erev, Ido
本文探讨了可分为不同类别的替代方案中的选择。特定类别的所有成员都是“复制替代品”：他们承诺相同的收益分配。向决策者提供的信息仅限于有关已实现（获得的和放弃的）收益的反馈。实验一表明，增加重复替代方案的数量会造成混乱（这有利于随机选择），并改变追逐近期回报趋势的影响（即选择具有最佳近期结果的替代方案）。这种效应被称为“混乱的追逐”，即使这种行为损害了预期收益，也会促进风险寻求。实验 2 表明，增加重复替代方案的数量可以减少（但不能消除）低估罕见事件的趋势。实验 3 表明，追逐和困惑的相对重要性对于实现低于放弃收益的可能性很敏感。主要结果总结为一个简单的模型，假设回报敏感性随着经历的遗憾而降低。版权所有 (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The current paper explores choice among alternatives that can be classified into distinct classes. All the members of a particular class were 'replicated alternatives': they promised the same payoff distribution. Information to decision makers was limited to feedback concerning the realized (obtained and foregone) payoffs. Experiment I demonstrates that increasing the number of replicated alternatives creates confusion (which facilitates random choice) and changes the implications of the tendency to chase recent returns (i.e., select the alternative with the best recent outcomes). This effect, termed 'confused chasing,' facilitates risk seeking even when this behavior impairs expected earnings. Experiment 2 reveals that increasing the number of replicated alternatives can reduce (but does not eliminate) the tendency to underweight rare events. Experiment 3 shows that the relative importance of chasing and confusion is sensitive to the likelihood of realizing lower payoffs than the forgone payoffs. The main results are summarized with a simple model assuming that payoff sensitivity decreases with experienced regret. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.